S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 27, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Like last Monday, the new week is greeted by only a non-influential Fed survey, and Charlie Evans.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2355.50 | 2351.75 |
| …would target | 2360.50 | 2357.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2349.00 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2344.00 | 2340.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bias-up bias.
Pre-open rally, post-open surge, bias-up trigger.
The overnight rally to 2349.50 retraced 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s drop. Its reaction back to unchanged at 2341.00 could have extended into a gap down, but did not. Instead, another bounce greeted the open at 2346.00, retracing 61.8% of the overnight drop.
This retracement extended higher. Fresh highs touched 2350.50, and started ranging sideways. And is still ranging sideways. Choppily. The 2346.75 bias-up signal was touched as support, AFTER it had already triggered. A fresh high printed momentarily, but hasn’t extended higher.
Now having printed above the pre-10:15 high, invalidating the 2352.25 bias-up target must exit the bias environment under the 2335.00 bias-down signal. Difficult, and unlikely. So, not meeting the target this morning would make it “unfinished business above.”
Meeting the target early enough would allow time to reverse back down. Friday Factors could protect against that if not already reversing down by noon — protect against reversing down, if not also enable a short-squeeze higher.
Regardless, gapping up under yesterday afternoon’s high means that sellers will not be marginalized today. A downdraft could develop at any time.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not climbing out of it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s recovery from 2339.75 up to 2356.00 included no-bias trending. Only required to retrace 2350.50, dropping into the close was testing 2339.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high’s errant tick.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially rallying to 2349.50 retraced 61.8% of the drop from Thuirsday morning’s highs. Trending down since then has eventually reached 2341.00, essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close, and attacking yesterday’s 2339.75 lows.
If, then…
8-9 points up and then 8-9 points back down. Gapping up this morning just 3 points above the overnight high could have reversed the decline. A lot of buying pressure was expended to try getting there, and none of the ground that was recovered has been maintained. Now the open is probably too close for another bounce to offer that potential. But there’s just enough time to greet the open gapping down. Regardless, the failed Ascending Triangle that I described yesterday already suggests resolving sharply lower to 2331.00 or 2327.00, if not also to 2317.00. Only triggering bias-up would suggest otherwise.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2348.75 would be likely to trigger the 2346.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2343.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2350.25 | 2346.75 |
| …would target | 2355.50 | 2352.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2338.25 | 2335.00 |
| …would target | 2332.75 | 2329.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.