S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday morning’s probe above its bias-up signal was no-bias trending, doomed to failure. That was already retraced back to its 2350.50 bias-up signal, and also 5-6 points lower where the 10:15 no-bias signal had triggered. But “unfinished business” was left outstanding at the overbought RSIs of its 2356.00 high. It’s only an errant tick, but it requires an eventual retest.
Unfinished business below remains outstanding at Wednesday morning’s 2331.00 bias-down target. It may be met without much delay, since Thursday afternoon’s sellers gained traction by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, and the proxy window trended down to fresh session lows.
A “failed ascending triangle” is forming, which I review graphically during the Market Wrap video. The pattern tends to resolve sharply lower. And that sharply lower resolution tends to form a more durable low. The 2331.00 attraction could be probed to 2327.00, or to 2317.00.
Meanwhile, Thursday afternoon’s 2352.00 high formed too late for gapping above it Friday to form a “session-long rally.” However, gapping up above 2352.00 would invalidate the traction that Thursday afternoon’s sellers gained. And while not a session-long rally, it would still be credible for extending higher — perhaps not relentlessly, but marginalizing sellers into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Thursday under the prior two sessions avoided touching “lower prior highs.” But the potential Island pattern is not an optimal formation. Almost any strength would be likely to extend up to 1.0900.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially probing a fresh high above 1253.00 at Thursday’s open soon had reversed down under Wednesday’s range to test 1243.00 as support. The week’s previously confirmed breakout still requires at least one more eventual higher close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s opening surge held 17.70 before reversing back down to unchanged at 17.57, briefly probing a nickel deeper. Closing flat-to-higher keeps alive potential to 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday tested the 150-04 pullback limit, which held like the last two pullback limit tests. Those prior tests also launched uplegs to the next higher objective, which is 152-00 so long as 150-04 holds as support.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s relatively narrow ranging fluctuated around the 47.75 lower-end of last week’s Island. The restrained optimism maintains the potential for forming a substantial bottom. But it will need to begin recovering Friday, or else trending down into the weekend could more likely resume the decline.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The knee-jerk reaction to Thursday’s EIA report momentarily touched the 2.99 sell signal and snapped back up into the range. The news wasn’t greeted from a position of strength or of weakness, but the next break either way is now likely to extend in that direction.
Mid-day Update… Sellers serve a purpose.
Dip fulfills near-term attractions below.
The open’s initial dip touched this morning’s 2339.75 bias-down signal. 
Not triggering it put into play an offsetting test of the 2350.50 bias-up signal. It was tested, but also probed up to 2356.00.
Probing beyond either bias signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced — at least back to the bias signal, and often back to the 10:15 or 1:20 bias timing window print.
Dropping back down to 2345.25 essentially retraced both. And being within 3 ticks of the 2345.00 bias-down target fulfilled it, too.
This is still a bias-down environment, so its 2350.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s upper-end. Breaking higher would be a “bias-down rally,” and like the no-bias trending, would require retracing back to the bias signal.
2350.00 is being tested now. Breaking higher during the bias environment is unlikely to be attempted, and would be doomed if tried. Regardless, breaking higher at all would target a retest of overbought RSIs at this morning’s 2356.00 high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 24, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s open is preceded by three Fed speakers, and the influential high-profile Durable Goods report. The post-open PMI is also influential to price action. After the morning catalysts, price action may try filling the void with volatility.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
Thu 7:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
8:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
8:05 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2360.00 | 2356.50 |
| …would target | 2365.75 | 2362.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.25 | 2350.00 |
| …would target | 2348.50 | 2345.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.