S&P
Post-open Review… Fighting off sellers.
Dips recovering.
Last night’s initial probe above yesterday morning’s 2348.00 high had been retraced down to 2343.00. Another overnight bounce retested 2348.00, and then reacted down more deeply to 2341.00.
A post-open dip touched this morning’s 2339.75 bias-down signal. The next reaction up was more reserved than the overnight bounces, resisted at or under 2347.00 through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.
An offsetting test of this morning’s 2350.50 bias-up signal was put into play. Surging at 10:30 extended straight up to within 2 ticks of 2350.50. It has now been touched.
Actually, 2350.50 is now being probed. During the no-bias environment. This requires being retraced to at least 2350.50 — if not also to 10:15’s print at 2344.00. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought at the 2352.25 high, so it must be retested if price were to react down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s bias-down signal left outstanding its 2331.00 target. Must have been something important, because the balance of the bias environment rallied 15 points to 2348.00. Half of that came after London’s terror attack. No specific catalyst was identifiable, but the noon hour’s reaction down to 2336.50 was recovered entirely, anyway. Wreversal Wednesday? The drop was a little brief for that setup, and its recovery was relatively shallow. But the overnight attempt to extend Tuesday’s plunge did not succeed.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy overnight action had initially opened down to 2341.50. An overnight rally probed Wednesday’s highs up to 2349.50. Trending back down into and out of Europe’s opens dipped to 2343.00, and is now bouncing to attack yesterday’s highs.
If, then…
Trying to resume yesterday morning’s recovery didn’t produce any extra gain in the afternoon, and now an overnight attempt has also been rebuffed. None of which invalidates the recovery attempt, which did manage a positive close. But all of which suggests that more selling pressure must be absorbed before forming a credible bottom. Yesterday’s “unfinished business below’ at 2331.00 could come back into play if the open isn’t yet rallying through yesterday’s highs. One caveat to fresh lows is that the pullback has much more room below if 2331.00 can’t hold. Meanwhile, after getting past Fed chair Yellen’s pre-open speech, be aware of headlines regarding the controversial healthcare bill. Although a vote might not come until this evening, price action may be influenced as it affects the near-term prospects for tax reform.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2348.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2350.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2353.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her taking things in reverse order I’ll just point out that yesterday morning’s 2348 hi its probe very late in the day up to 4875 both being attacked or tested here presently this is after an overnight dip and overnight Depp after having probe yesterday’s has it is really no words sellers aren’t we taking control not at this moment buyers aren’t really backing off they’re not being very productive but there’s still a force and this is after yesterday morning first of all the overnight action that had tried extending Tuesday’s drop the big surprising plunge trending down on that pattern into the afternoon and then pretty much been required to Provo overnight but then yesterday’s opening dip having endured past the tub and window to trigger by ass down past the time and window to avoid being invalidated because of the size of the decline that preceded it the biceps ago was pretty well above open in fact despite a 15-point rally off the low the mornings by ass up signal wasn’t recovered not in time to invalidate the bus down to the bus down Target 2331 is unfinished business below I wouldn’t even be talking about it if the rest of the session after that mornings 15 Point rally if the rest of the session had extended higher the overnight action that extended higher if pre open Action Extenze higher which it’s not try to do we won’t be talking about 2331 we do have to take the upside seriously after all a bias down signal was put into play their target was left at standing and into the face of London’s Terror attacks a rally doubled O’Reilly origin should otherwise have made it very vulnerable to any kind of a bad headline or big Soul order hitting hitting the tape just muscled right through and again to yesterday’s clothes and into the overnight being rejected so we have to give buyers certainly not every benefit of the doubt but some benefit of the doubt we still don’t have any direct attribution to this rally is certainly a lot of stuff going on yes Tuesday Mornings drop considered to be nervousness ahead of the health care vote that is occurring sometime today probably after the close still though headlines last minute headlines handicapping it likely to buff at the market and the health care about really has nothing to do with the market other than the tax reform initiative that should follow it I love being delayed or having lesser or greater chances of success the sooner it does Fallen so do give a bouncer better for the day by the way yesterday’s clothes was in positive territory regardless of the afternoon not extending above the morning so I today’s open gapps up yesterday morning so I above 2348 25 if it triggers a bicep signal 23 it gets every benefit of the doubt at that point for extending iron is 2350 fifties by a subsequent was tested and not triggered of course that would put into play it on setting test of the bias down signal23 3975 not yet at that point enough to confirm or have any degree of confidence of 2331 will be tested but even without testing on rejecting it if this morning is rallying the open isn’t there is room down to the bus 35 look for 31 only bigger picture of course is that following through immediately following through a mediately but whatever that may be predictably still not Attracted to 2121 2317 and lower coming into play alright I’ll be looking at test resistance be at yesterday morning that’s right now 3:50 silver did not confirm yesterday Tuesday bond has another as potential to extend another point so long as the pullback woman holds that basically 150 04 little bit of weakness overnight not yet enough to undermine the Rileys momentum but this stage of the rally even is a corrective bounce weather affect the battery even if something more substantial this stage of the rally probably can’t tolerate a pullback limit test we had to that have held that have launched the next up like that’s pretty tired of his point crude oil did everything I could do short of signaling momentum reversing up did everything you could do to form a durable bottom yesterday the gap down or not is irrelevant once it is retested from above which it was during the noon hour after this bounce didn’t quite hit Tuesday’s range but it did hit higher prices at last week’s Island get back to fill that Gap closed back within the islands range if that back within Tuesday’s rink close positive didn’t trigger improved which standing back to back to always be preferable to fill that before alright
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2354.25 | 2350.50 |
| …would target | 2360.25 | 2356.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2343.50 | 2339.75 |
| …would target | 2338.00 | 2334.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s bias-down signal was confirmed by probing under its pre-10:15 low. But its 2331.00 bias-down target was attacked to within 2 points before a sudden 15-point rally reversed the bias environment’s trend. Even that was too shallow to invalidate the bias signal, so 2331.00 is “unfinished business below.”
The afternoon’s 2336.75 bias-down signal was touched coming out of the noon hour. Sellers didn’t exploit the proximity and timing to trigger bias-down. Which buyers exploited by trending back up through the afternoon to probe the morning’s 2348.00 high.
Wednesday may seem to have fulfilled a Wreversal Wednesday setup. But its initial dip was briefer than the setup should have lasted, and its recovery was shallower. Already extending higher Thursday morning would still be credible for a bigger bounce. But a durable bottom would first hold a test of 2331.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s “outside day” was only narrowly so. It neither rejected Tuesday’s session to form an Island, nor did it extend higher. Gapping down Thursday would still form an Island. Meanwhile, the next higher objective in-play is 1.0900, so long as pullbacks hold 1.0750 as support.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaining several dollars Wednesday to 1251.20 satisfies near-term buying pressure, while also confirming Tuesday’s breakout which requires an eventual third higher close. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold 1239.50 as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very narrow ranging Wednesday didn’t reject Tuesday’s close above 17.50, which has put into play a test of 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Not reversing down Wednesday made the pattern likely to extend to its next higher target at 152-04, which was attacked to within 1 point and remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 150-15.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s probe under last week’s Island had become likely when Monday’s low only touched the Island’s “lower prior highs” instead of also filling either of its gaps. Closing back above Wednesday’s 47.75 low undermines the downside momentum. Wednesday’s opening gap down was retested intraday, so there is no “unfinished business below” if a rally were to begin, by closing back above 48.50.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Breaking lower at Wednesday’s open extended down intraday to close under the 3.08 pullback limit. One more lower close already would have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness, but it is certainly not optimal strength. Closing under 2.99 would reverse the trend back down.