S&P
Mid-day Update… Two steps forward, one step back. Again.
Recovering dips, but not stopping them.
Fresh post-10:15 lows weren’t necessary for the morning’s 2363.75 bias objective to become “unfinished business below.” But the bias environment exit to slide 6 points, anyway, to 2165.50.
Coming to at least within 3 ticks of 2363.75 would have neutralized it. But bouncing into and out of the noon hour tested the afternoon’s 2371.50 bias-up signal.
Isolating the probe under the open’s low to the noon hour is a less predictive version of isolating the overnight dip under yesterday’s lows. Neither reverses momentum up without also triggering a buy signal, but they do offer context to selling.
Triggering late no-bias isn’t required to trend back down from the bias-up signal. Hovering here until the bias environment begins lapsing could still launch a rally into the close (and through tomorrow morning). Not holding a test of 2363.75 as support would next target 2357.50.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, but even its high-profile items have no track record for influencing price action. Following the 30-year auction’s results, afternoon volatility may become subdued ahead of the next morning’s payrolls report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2371.75 | 2371.50 |
| …would target | 2377.75 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2365.00 | 2364.75 |
| …would target | 2359.25 | 2359.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Opportunity knocked.
Several setups suggested selling’s subsided. One wouldn’t.
I’ve seen bigger paradigm shifts, but this one was still obvious. Overnight probing 5 points under yesterday’s low down to 2359.50 was recovered to greet the open 5 points into positive territory at 2370.00.
Extending 3 points higher to 2373.00 was retraced to 2367.50. Holding a test of the 2370.75 bias-up signal triggered no-bias, and put into play an offsetting test of the 2363.75 bias-down signal.
The no-bias signal can be rejected, without yet probing under the pre-10:15 low. One setup would recover the 2370.75 bias-up signal through 10:30. Another setup would recover the open’s 2373.00 highs upon exiting the bias environment at 11:30-noon. I’m monitoring for either based on these earlier setups:
Maintaining the gap up isolated the probe under yesterday’s lows, especially having touched the next lower objective of a multi-session decline, which likely reverses the trend back up.
The overnight low’s Symmetrical Triangle could have attracted price back down for its first break being false, but it had no influence during the opening 15 minutes.
Recovering 2372.00 through 9:45 would have made bias-up likelier to trigger. Its test wasn’t rejected by then. If the bullish setups I describe above don’t allow rejecting the no-bias, they could still help to absorb and recover from fulfilling the downside objective.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Last chance for gas.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday gapped down and probed fresh pullback lows at 2366.25. Holding the bias-down signal after the grace period put into play an offsetting test of the morning’s 2377.50 bias-up signal. A surge came within 3 points (not ticks) at 2374.75 before peaking, then retracing almost all of the recovery, leaving “unfinished business above.” And that was only the morning’s bias environment. Ranging sideways back up to 2372.00 almost lasted the balance of the afternoon. But the last half-hour slid briefly to test the next lower objective at 2364.00-2365.00..
Overnight action’s new info…
Despite bouncing into the close, Tuesday’s late break resumed steadily until touching the next lower objective at 2359.50. Ranging sideways formed a Symmetrical Triangle to greet Europe’s opens, which triggered a breakout that was retraced back to unchanged at 2367.50.
If, then…
Each session’s lower low reflects sellers expending more energy. So, the question is whether they’re gaining traction for the effort. Is this a temporary correction that will at least retest the highs, or is the trend reversing down. The last two sessions have closed back up within the prior session’s range, albeit closing negative. Obviously, that’s not a buy signal, as probing fresh lows continues. The “lower prior highs” being tested this week can launch a rally leg. But the window isn’t open indefinitely, and not yet exploiting the retracement can suddenly attract new sponsorship. Having probed under yesterday’s lows to a relevant level, isolating that to the overnight would be credible for launching a multi-session recovery. Otherwise, the trend may be reversing down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2362.25 would be likely to trigger the 2363.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2368.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2372.00 would be likely to trigger the 2370.75 bias-up signal.