S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2371.50 | 2370.75 |
| …would target | 2378.00 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2364.25 | 2363.75 |
| …would target | 2358.25 | 2357.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s gap down held the bias-down signal to create an attraction above. After absorbing the anxiousness of an event in London, a steep rally attacked the upside attraction. But the 2374.75 peak stopped short of its 2377.50 objective before correcting. And correcting. And correcting.
A pullback to 2370.75 could have ended the correction, but it was probed down to 2365.00 when the bias environment began lapsing. The balance of the afternoon ranged sideways up to 2372.00. Until the last half-hour, which slid to the next lower objective at 2364.00-2365.00.
A lot of time has been spent in decline since last Wednesday’s high. And thanks to the height of that high, a lot of selling pressure has been expended only to test the prior week’s “lower prior highs.”
Of course, that was true enough after Monday’s close, but the selling didn’t stop. And Monday’s close back above the morning’s high didn’t prevent extending down Tuesday. Gapping up is still a credible path higher — and much likelier Wednesday than it was Monday, since “unfinished business” is no longer below. But if the decline is attracting new sponsorship Wednesday, then it should break quickly under 2359.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.0585 bounce limit was probed Tuesday while testing 1.0570, and also testing uptrending pivotal support, whose break would target 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Tuesday to fresh lows met the 1218.00 target and ranged slightly lower intraday. A bounce has room up to 1230.00, and the decline can meanwhile extend down to 1209.00 or 1198.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 17.55 target was met Tuesday by gapping down to fresh lows. A bounce has room up to 17.75 before starting to signal a rally underway. And there is meanwhile room to extend the decline to test 17.05.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Eking lower to 148-20 probed fresh lows still targeting at least a test of 147-10 with no reason to delay accelerating its move.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday retested the 53.58 sell signal as resistance, then reacted back down to unchanged attacking 53.00, still poised to launch a downleg.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap down at or under the 2.86 bounce limit was extended down to the 2.83 sell signal that put into play a retest of the two-week old 2.64 overnight low.
Mid-day Update… Try, try again.
Early recovery falls flat.
This morning’s rally from 2366.25 attacked 2375.00. RSIs diverged negatively, so calculable resistance there launched a pullback. That much was anticipated. Retracing substantially all of the rally was not.
The bias environment exit at 2367.00 was retraced up to 2372.00. Still testing the 2371.50 bias-up signal at 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias.
None of which is necessarily bearish. Triggering bias-down would have contradicted the bottoming template. But there’s still time to rally out of the afternoon bias environment, as any further delay would be very suspicious, and very vulnerable to extending down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Feb’s payrolls were delayed one week. ADP’s report will give us a glimpse of sentiment ahead of the event.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET