S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2372.25 | 2371.50 |
| …would target | 2378.25 | 2377.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2368.00 | 2367.25 |
| …would target | 2362.50 | 2361.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Bottom’s up.
Extra dip delays ultimate bottoming pattern.
Pre-open selling had pierced the overnight Globex session’s initial 2370.50 low, touching this morning’s 2370.00 bias-down signal.
I wanted it touched post-open, too — and preferably pierced by at least 1 tick — before being confident it wouldn’t trigger.
The open did pierce it by 1 tick, and then snapped back up. But only momentarily ahead of a 5-point drop. Although not required, yesterday’s low was pierced by 3 ticks down to 2366.25.
There was news: a security incident at or near the London Bridge / subway station. Presumably, anxiousness had triggered the extra dip. At least, that’s what I presumed.
In fact, 2370.00 was touched just in time to invoke the grace period. “Late no-bias” triggered at 10:30, already having surged up to 2373.50. And that was exceeded momentarily by another point.
An offsetting test of the 2377.50 bias-up signal is in-play. A test of 2381.50 is also likely at some point, to whatever degree. More importantly, the bottoming template we’ve been tracking remains intact.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Slow-playing the recovery?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s slide probed under Friday’s lows to fulfill downside attractions at 2372.25 and 2368.50. The probe also began tracking a bottoming template that had begun with Friday’s failure to recover from fresh multi-session lows. The template continued tracking with Monday afternoon’s recovery to fresh session highs at 2378.00, closing above the morning’s high. And the recovery gained traction through the bias environment exit and the proxy window trending. Monday’s close was still negative, which isn’t necessarily bearish, but a recovery isn’t yet reliable..
Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping 3 points into Monday’s 2375.00 cash session close extended down to
2370.50 at the Globex open. Bouncing 5 points to test 2375.00 as resistance has reacted down to within 1 tick of the Globex open’s 2370.50 low.
If, then…
Resuming the rally doesn’t require gapping up this morning since yesterday’s rally gained traction for its efforts. Gapping down would still be likely to recover. Trending down through the open — or triggering bias-down — would make a recovery difficult. A recovery’s first objective is to test 2381.50, and extending higher would eventually target 2404.50 and 2418.00. Resuming the decline would instead target 2364.00-2365.00 below.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2368.50 would be likely to trigger the 2369.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2372.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2378.25 | 2377.50 |
| …would target | 2384.50 | 2383.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2370.75 | 2370.00 |
| …would target | 2365.00 | 2364.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
What should have happened Monday, did, whether to end the pullback or to extend the decline. Unfinished business below was neutralized at 2372.25 and 2368.50. Potential to lower lows was rescued by exiting the bias environment high enough.
What could have happened for extending the decline did not happen, since all unfinished business below is neutralized. And what needed to happen for reversing the pullback may have begun. The afternoon’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour and then trending to fresh highs through 3:10-3:20.
Monday’s close was still negative, but that’s not necessarily bearish. Last Tuesday’s negative close reflected a vacuum back up to unchanged, which was leveraged into a gargantuan rally. After recovering 2381.50, extending higher would encounter resistance on the way to objectives at 2404.50 and 2418.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.