S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday bounced to fill the gap up to Thursday’s 1.0615 open, and then probed slightly higher to 1.0630 resistance. Its reaction down attacked the 1.0585 bounce limit, which must be retraced without delay to launch a final downleg targeting 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday morning’s fresh highs attacking 1265.00 were retraced but under 12259.00, threatening not fulfill the eventual third higher close that was put into play by last week’s confirmed breakout.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Although its confirmed breakout was not optimal, Monday’s early strength tried to fulfill the requirement for an eventual third higher close. testing 18.47 was reversed back under Friday’s 18.39 high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up and extension didn’t follow-through Monday morning. Dipping into the afternoon was contained within Friday’s range, which only fails to confirm the breakout, but doesn’t reverse momentum down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night only attacked last week’s highs, and Monday only fluctuated around 54.25. The sell signal remains at 53.58.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night probed slightly lower to retrace into last Tuesday night’s inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. A probe under its 2.64 low is still required before a bottom can be credible.
Mid-day Update… New high not new high.
Fresh session highs attacking overnight highs.
This morning’s 2268.25 high is under last night’s highs. but it’s a new intraday high. Not unlike the overnight high — not at all unlike it, not in the least bit — entering a new timing window back under a relative low would reverse the trend down.
Okay, it’s a little unlike the overnight high. Reversing down could leave outstanding the requirement to retest the overnight high. But the door has re-opened for launching a multi-session trend reversal down. That doesn’t make it likely — in fact, failing to exploit a similar setup at the open suggests that this opportunity won’t be exploited either.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2368.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, and is only now being touched. Probing above it during the no-bias environment would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure. Doomed to failure, from 2272.00-2274.00? Only if bias-up signal is probed.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week gets busy Tuesday for econ reports. High-profile pre-open and post-open reports are only influential post-open. The Chicago PMI tends to generate a reaction among its institutional subscribers that is duplicated when released publicly. And any pre-open reaction is likely to be duplicated, too. The two afternoon Fed speakers probably won’t be very influential to price action.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1269.50 | 2368.25 |
| …would target | 2375.00 | 2374.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2363.00 | 2362.00 |
| …would target | 2358.00 | 2356.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Popping trial balloons.
Headlines steal the bullish show.
Dipping from the 2370.00 overnight highs greeted the open at the overnight low and then probed lower to 2361.00. 
Recovering it through the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 was the first suggestion that sellers were going to be marginalized.
Rallying to the 2366.00 bias-up signal stopped short of marginalizing sellers, thanks to one headline, and then another. Two negative knee-jerk reactions to trial balloons about Trump tax plans were each recovered, but not in time to trigger bias-up. Recovering 2366.00 by 10:30 has at least invalidated the 10:15 no-bias signal.
That has extended up to 2368.25, another new post-open high. It’s still short of the overnight 2370.00 new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest — not necessarily today, but probably. Next above it would be 2372.25-2373.75.
Already this morning, last week’s pattern has been broken. Each day’s intraday or opening drops was recovered entirely intraday. This morning’s challenge was shallower, but its recovery has reversed to new highs. None of last week’s dips got that done. Today’s might close lower, too — which would be bearish if at least 2370.00 were probed first.