S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… PLUS TRANSCRIPT!
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Another steep, deep, singular dive was recovered entirely, making at least four for the holiday-shortened week. Friday’s iteration was an overnight slight, which didn’t really get underway until two hours after Europe’s opens. But its 2349.50 pre-open low began retracing into the 2352.25 open, and recovered 8 points to 2360.25 by noon. That was still a 2-point deficit from Thursday’s close, which is how it remained until the moment the 3:10-3:20 position-squaring window lapsed. An 8-point surge attacked 2366.00 into the close, under prior highs, but a new high close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open printed 2362.50 and then spiked up to a new high at 2368.50. Drifting flat-to-higher into Europe’s opens produced two touches of 2370.00, forming a “new Globex trend extreme.” Their interim test of 2366.00 as support is being probed now down to 2363.50.
If, then…
Surely by now you’ve watched or attended the Saturday Review recording (“Ruh-roh“). So, you know already of the relative under-performance appearing among the major indexes. And you know of the significant nearby attraction / resistance at 2372.25-2373.75. It doesn’t require being tested, but last night’s new Globex trend extreme at 2370.00 does. Yet, the same overnight high that ensures eventually probing higher intraday, is also creating a setup that can launch a multi-session decline. In combination with probing fresh highs overnight, greeting the cash session sufficiently back under last night’s 2362.50 opening low would be the trigger. Otherwise, 2372.00-2374.00 lies straight ahead.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2360.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2358.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2367.50 would be likely to trigger the 2366.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2363.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Morning Market to her it is a full-length we coming off of a holiday shortened week which was the week following expiration oh what else lots of stuff going on interesting way more stuff going on overnight or not going on not directly but leaving but I would say indelibly here’s what I hear is what that points to we talked about going to go through it again but watch the Saturday review if you haven’t essentially last week’s trading range which began by gapping up surging and then both the alternating between dips and complete recovery dips complete recovery is eventual recovery but singular isolated substantial or steep deep dips all recovered including Friday’s dip down to the lower end that for the by the grace of a late brake higher late after the proxy window has closed elapsed got a late surge on a Friday afternoon always have to be prepared for that but nothing could be less predictive and it didn’t produce a new trend I approve of any prior intraday High did produce a new trend I close but being within the range it doesn’t qualify as requiring any higher close to follow nevertheless all of those dips and if not that then at least the lack of reversing down suggest that more than wants to hire is it going to extend Tire Pro choir the answer’s probably proba instead of extend the reasoning is Henry the template that description that play basically is in the Saturday review again if you ever watch that why we’ve got to prepare before reversing down substantially more likely to and now we are so let’s pick it up there because last night’s open spiked up to a new high that’s not delayed but it is a delay or anything or follow through it just did and then get back into under Price Rite to a fresh I recover do a fresher 2370 another dip back under prize but look at the look at what we’ve got now we’ve got a new high pulled back tire I pulled back that’s complexity right away we’ve already got a new Globex Trend extreme that requires being tested intraday the recovery to test it again last night into and out of your UPS opens that’s not the retest intraday retest as what we’re looking for but there’s any case that creates an interim low that’s being probed here the interloping a test of 2366 that happens to be this morning to buy a sub signal it’s being probed and his 6350 not yet back to the logo of the first reaction down from 6 to 8:50 which itself is not yet back to the love the open but here’s the setup since we do have new overnight highs probe above the prior sessions hi at least not necessarily a new trend I but just a probe above any priors sessions High if the open is unable to maintain that and not just fluctuate not just creepy open within the overnight range with back under the overnight low back under the overnight low not the pre-opening we could dip even deeper but that’s not what we’re talking about the overnight low is 6250 creepy up and back under 6250 and we start suspecting or if we know that we’re ahead of the opening up likely to be open under 16 250 we know that we are potentially going to reject the overnight High not just 6250 but back under a prior low as well would be kind of the icing on the cake nail in the coffin whichever that’s essentially 2360 it doesn’t have to be a complete retracement back to and through the proxy Windows origin member 310-320 was exited back at around 5723 5750 would be gravy or an ale or whichever gravy on the closet now so better to 2360 is really pretty big Line in the Sand get food after the opening 15 minutes about till he will have a great deal of confidence that momentum is reversing down as I said we’ve been trending into the high so each successive session were printing a fresh eye which hasn’t been the case wasn’t the case last week but nevertheless something of import would be happening and so at least for the sake of getting back down to lower price we have a high degree of confidence that 40 to 50 for instance so pretty interesting set-up at the open if that doesn’t happen if the open isn’t retracing that deeply then it’s likely to recover or extend to hire that is to probe we discussed in the Saturday review being the next traction 7225 at 7375 cause 72-74 whether it is this morning’s bias up Target 7150 have to leave the older guy has a new globe extreme extreme 70 so we’ve got attractions above that attractions or adjectives adjectives in the case of the new Globex Trend extreme that’s a price point that needs to be met the other stuff there’s attraction so long as momentum remains and play intact but if we’re going to go up then we can’t go down that’s not always the case but we can still recover and even be likely to be open alright no II confirm closer to French’s the uptrend 70 sleep a lot of resistance to 1259 was being fulfilled that was the objective of that break out so pull back is if not likely at least very possible and there is at least hesitation here Sunday night into Monday morning but extend higher whether it’s after filling we get back to Thursday’s close around 12:51 or something more substantial just to really refuel and 1273 5074 would be the next likely objective Silvers actually firmer what is maybe a confirm break out it’s not optimal because Thursday’s new High clothes above the multi-session range was in a session that was raging around the multi-session ranges Pryor High and whatever to that close was almost incidental it certainly wasn’t about the morning so I so we can give the phone to the benefit of the doubt at least it wanting to prove higher and if it does extend high-rating 70-72 is it Long Pond you know that whatever is going on here it is leaving unfinished business below lower price and not to mention that it’s coming up with an unstable base as did the last rally which me which was unstable base form goodbye only attacking prior Lowe’s stopping optimistically short more than a blue Kotori bounds but a pretty big one at that so I can’t sell this strength I would sell a break under these prior Lowe’s the right now we’re monitoring for is whether there’s gonna be a second consecutive are close confirming Fridays breakout coils still in the rain that’s really all we can give it no credibility for anything else that’s the Sara Lee in the Natural Gas anyway because eventually it has to retest last Tuesday night so that it was room up 286 in the interim but doesn’t look like we’re already and presumably are we testing last Tuesday night
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2367.25 | 2366.00 |
| …would target | 2372.75 | 2371.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2359.50 | 2358.25 |
| …would target | 2353.50 | 2352.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending during Friday afternoon’s no-bias environment was unlikely, being both Friday afternoon and a no-bias environment. Even the proxy window was stagnant — until the moment it lapsed at 3:20. Surging triggered a sell signal above 2359.25 that was considered only because Friday Factors can be very productive when they overcome the likelier whipsaw.
And the likelier whipsaw was overcome. Surging into the cash session close attacked 2364.75. A post-close blip-up attacked 2366.00 momentarily. Any higher would have targeted at least 2371.50. But that was unlikely, since the surge’s origin reflects weak-handed sponsorship. The new trend high close was within the range, disqualifying it from requiring any higher close.
But a higher high is nevertheless encouraged. Why? Because yet another relatively deep, steep intraday drop has been retraced entirely. That’s 4 or 5 for the week. At least an obligatory probe of fresh highs is likely. Correcting Friday’s late surge is likelier first. Reversing it back under Friday afternoon’s 2355.75 bias environment low is possible, threatening a “session-long decline” targeting “lower prior highs” under 2347.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday was quickly retraced back down to the 1.0585 bounce limit that Thursday had only fluctuated narrowly around, maintaining the downside momentum targeting 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday to immediately fulfill the 1259.00 objective. Probing higher was retraced back down to attack Thursday’s range. The second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up extended higher through the morning. Thursday’s test of the 18.18 objective was a fresh high close, but not an optimal breakout while still ranging around prior highs. But the burden of proof is on sellers to avoid trending higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s optimism may have been ineffectual for not trending higher, but Friday’s open compensated for the delay by gapping up through 152-06 resistance and then trending higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a much bigger rally underway. Closing back under 151-11 would instead launch a steep decline.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down finished off Thursday’s failure to extend its gap up. Friday’s gap down also attacked Wednesday’s test of the 53.68 sell signal that had only been ranged narrowly around.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
With room above to 2.86 as noise, and an attraction to probe under Tuesday night’s new lows at 2.65, Friday’s session only ranged narrowly sideways.
Mid-day Update… Stopped at go.
Still fluctuating around the bias signal.
Will this morning’s 2352.25 bias-down target be retested? Gapping down to it had recovered to probe the 2357.00 bias-down signal, at one point attacking 2360.00. Bias-down triggered anyway, but 2352.25 was never retested.
Ranging choppily flat-to-higher since then has held two more tests of 2360.00, each time reacting back down under 2357.00.
Now this afternoon’s 2359.25 bias-up signal has held to trigger no-bias. Its 2352.25 bias-down signal could be attacked without trending. Otherwise, Friday afternoons are difficult to generate sponsorship for any move.