S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2273.25 | 2268.75 |
| …would target | 2278.25 | 2273.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.00 | 2260.50 |
| …would target | 2259.50 | 2255.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The search for buyers resumes.
Opening dip attacks yesterday’s low.
Yesterday afternoon had been trying to trigger a sell signal under 2270.00 when a late rally began. Originating late, its sponsorship was weak-handed, dooming it to failure. 
Further undermining the recovery attempt, the late bounce fulfilled the maximum bounce target at 2277.00. And held it. And closed AT the critical 2275.00 instead of above it.
One overnight plunge to 2268.00 was recovered entirely to 2275.00. The open could have isolated the probe under 2275.00 to the overnight. It didn’t. The open was greeted at 2269.00-2272.00.
Yesterday afternoon’s sell signal under 2270.00 would have targeted a retest of the morning’s 2263.50 low, required by its oversold RSIs. That was attacked to within 3 ticks while probing under this morning’s 2271.50 bias-down signal and its 2266.00 bias-down target.
The reaction up triggered a buy signal above 2266.75 that extended up to 2269.75. Having fulfilled the bias-down target, entering the noon hour back above the 2271.50 bias-down signal could launch a rally back to new highs.
But stopping optimistically short of actually touching yesterday’s low isn’t likely to produce a durable recovery. Fresh lows would target 2259.75, which could hold as the low, or else break lower targeting a retest of 2248.50.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open gapped down 8 points to its 2281.00 bias-down target. The next 90 minutes plunged 18 points more down to 2263.25. Lower prior highs down to 2275.00 didn’t contain the drop and launch the next upleg, which Thursday and Friday’s shallower dips had tried, and failed. Or, did it? Rallying through the afternoon peaked upon touching its 2277.00 maximum upside target. It originated too late to be the product of strong hands, but its reaction down closed at 2275.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having fulfilled buying pressure up to 2277.00 with weak-handed sponsorship, a reaction down became highly likely. Narrow ranging supported by 2275.00 ended with the BOJ’s expected unchanged policy statement. Quickly breaking lower attacked 2268.00, which then supported a somewhat narrow range. This range broke higher, retracing all the way back up to 2275.00. Its reaction down to 2270.25 has been recovered almost entirely.
If, then…
Monday afternoon’s bounce off its oversold lows had waited too long to extend for its sponsorship to be strong-handed. Isolating the doomed bounce’s retracement to the overnight by opening back above 2275.00 could be sufficient to resume the rally Tuesday afternoon. Trying to trend up too aggressively already Tuesday morning might extend to higher prior lows at 2287.00-2289.00 before failing. Oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2263.25 low require an eventual retest, which would be the likely attraction to not opening back above 2275.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2275.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2271.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2269.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2282.50 | 2278.00 |
| …would target | 2287.75 | 2283.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2276.00 | 2271.50 |
| …would target | 2270.50 | 2266.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon’s bounce peaked just after the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30 at 2273.00. Rather than extend higher, the 3:10-3:20 proxy window reacted down to 2269.00. It was too late for strong-handed buyers to push price higher, but that didn’t prevent rallying, anyway.
And not by just a little. Potential to 2275.00 and 2277.00 was fully satisfied at the bounce’s peak. Their potential for attracting price higher into rally mode overnight was suddenly inverted. Now, global participants have a chance to sell a bounce after missing Monday morning’s sell-off.
Oversold RSIs at Monday’s 2263.25 low require an eventual retest. That could be much sooner, rather than later, if Tuesday’s open isn’t already gapping up above higher prior lows at 2287.00-2289.00. Just rallying post-open to higher prior lows would more likely hold their resistance and reverse down substantially
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.