S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s bounce touched the 1.0760 bounce limit, and then reversed down sharply to gap down under last week’s lows to test 1.0645. The morning’s bounce filled the gap back to Friday’s 1.0715 close.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing Sunday night touched the 1195.00 higher prior low, whose recovery intraday is likely also to test 1209.00. Regardless of its degree the current bounce can’t be considered more than just a temporary correction.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Sunday night helps to keep in-play the potential not only for a higher high, but also for that to be sustained through the close to satisfy the rally’s requirement for at least one more higher close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down slightly Monday after having firmed Sunday night was in-line with the corrective bounce measurements. Stocks dropping hard may have prevented the decline’s resumption in a flight-to-safety.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging at Monday’s open pierced the 52.50 sell signal that was attacked Friday, and which had been narrowly avoided on Wednesday. Finally breaking it after the detour would make it likely to be more productive faster.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday confirmed that Friday’s intraday recovery was only a temporary correction, and that the attraction back down to and through the 3.12 low remained intact.
Mid-day Update… Getting a little too comfy.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
This morning’s drop ultimately touched 2263.25. This allowed room for a corrective bounce up to 2271.00, 
which was touched before noon. It has yet to be exceeded, which would essentially target 2278.00.
And there is no requirement to bounce any higher.
The only requirement to bouncing higher is to start bouncing today. But sideways ranging through the noon hour has avoided extending higher. And despite this afternoon’s no-bias environment having room up to its 2275.75 bias-up signal, its 2266.00 bias-down signal is being attacked.
Oversold RSIs at the 2263.25 low require its retest, eventually. That would be the likely objective if 2266.00 were probed during the no-bias environment. It would be an objective if probed after the bias environment begins lapsing, but could also give way to a new downleg that resumes the decline.
Meanwhile, back above 2270.50 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway, regardless of the delay. And delaying the recovery — even if oversold RSIs were left outstanding — could still produce new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 31, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s calendar is busy, high-profile, and two post-open reports have a reliable track record for influencing price action. Any obvious reaction to the pre-open reports would likely be duplicated post-open. And the PMI report often triggers a reaction among its institutional subscribers, which is repeated when released several minutes later to the rest of us
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Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2280.25 | 2275.75 |
| …would target | 2285.50 | 2281.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2270.50 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2264.75 | 2260.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stumble, stumble, plunge.
Still haven’t found strong-handed buyers.
Gapping down had suggested the rally would be seeking out buyers at lower levels, still trying to stretch the rubber band enough to snap momentum back up. “Lower prior highs” at 2275.00 had been the likely objective after Thursday and Friday’s dips to 2292.00 and 2287.00 had proved too shallow.
2275.00 was too shallow, too. A fresh low just printed 2263.25. Like the lows that preceded it, its 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were oversold. And that requires at least an eventual retest of the low.
Currently bouncing to 2266.00, another point higher would start to suggest a bigger bounce underway. It’s too soon to suspect it of gaining traction, or of avoiding a retest of the oversold RSIs low.
A low will need to form relatively soon, and relatively nearby, because the only other support below is prior lows, and that’s not very durable.