S&P
Pre-close View…Settled down.
Post-open “action” hovers at its lows.
Last night’s range measured essentially 2 points wide, except for a couple of late probes lower. Post-open action measures essentially 2 points wide, except for an early probe higher.
Two sides to the same coin, and not only for their measurements. Both windows had potential to rally. But last night’s opportunity was well before this morning’s open, while today’s opportunity is just before the close.
And we’re now just before the close. Not already rallying at this morning’s open made a rally unlikely until late-afternoon, if at all. A fresh high above 2266.00 could start a short-squeeze back to yesterday’s 2269.50 high. Otherwise, the pattern remains vulnerable to extending to fresh session lows.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s retest of the lowest calculable 1.0410 target had recovered to avoid closing under the 1.0435 pullback limit so that a bottom could begin forming. Although it’s premature to yet recover, Wednesday gapped up and traded exclusively in positive territory, still at or under prior highs.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday only attacked 1139.00 before retracing back to Tuesday’s close, still no likelier than not to fulfill the decline’s 1118.00 objective or test the 1147.00-1149.00 bounce potential first.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery from gapping down to its 15.67 target did not extend higher Wednesday, still attracted lower to test Tuesday’s open from above.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Monday not only further delayed fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least one more lower close, but also created a new attraction below at the gap back down to Friday’s close. Gapping down Tuesday didn’t extend, and Wednesday firmed back up to Monday’s 149-04 high, which does not affect the pattern.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming after Tuesday’s API report didn’t extend higher, but dipping after Wednesday morning’s EIA report did revisit the 52.40 buy signal. The rally should resume without further delay to maintain the near-term target of retesting last Sunday night’s 55.45 high.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close, forming an Island of Tuesday’s gap down that had probed fresh relative lows down to 3.24. Peaking at or under 3.50 (which was probed intraday) keeps alive near-term potential to resume the decline targeting 3.18.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Participation is thinning due to the holiday, making Thursday’s very busy calendar extra capable of influencing price action — and it already has its share of high-profile, influential reports. Any obvious reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.00 | 2268.25 |
| …would target | 2276.50 | 2272.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.75 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2260.75 | 2257.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Settle in.
No rally, slow drift.
The unchanged open at 2265.50 blipped-up to 2268.00 and pierced the overnight high momentarily. But then it went the way of all blips-up and blapped back down. Hard, attacking the 2263.50 overnight low to within 2 ticks. And now probing under it by 2 ticks.
Not already rallying or sliding at the open could have just ranged sideways through the morning (or longer). But not already rallying left the door open to sliding, and to attractions below at oversold RSIs from yesterday’s 2262.25 low. It could be probed to 2260.50, as RSIs haven’t even attacked oversold territory yet.
If selling were to get underway and not hold a test of 2260.50, then there’s deeper oversold RSIs requiring retests. But a rally isn’t likely today before late-afternoon, if at all.