S&P
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
A blip-down to 2264.25 had accompanied Europe’s opens. It has been retested down to 2263.50. But the open is being greeted at unchanged around 2266.50. This morning is unlikely to rally without already rallying through the open. Otherwise, it’s continually vulnerable to retesting yesterday afternoon’s 2262.25 low, and lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… The plot thins.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was greeted by an overnight rally up to its 2267.50 bias-up target. Gapping up and extending higher immediately post-open quickly peaked at 2269.50 as sponsorship disappeared. The balance of the session chopped widely, flat-to-lower, in search of new sponsorship. A late dip from 2267.50 to 2262.25 was retraced entirely into the close, leaving “unfinished business below” at its oversold RSIs.
Overnight action’s new info…
But for initially piercing 2267.50 by a single tick, overnight action has probed no higher than Tuesday’s late bounce while ranging narrowly down to 2265.50. That late bounce had retraced back to the origin of a late dip, so the dip was free to repeat, but it did not. At least, not yet. The narrow ranging had been probed momentarily down to 2264.25, which is now being retested.
If, then…
Gapping up today above yesterday’s 2269.50 high could prevent a deeper, by resuming the rally targeting new highs above 2273.00. A deeper dip could also be prevented by.. not dipping, Alternatively, dipping under Tuesday’s 2262.25 low would have a brief opportunity to snap back up from as low as 2260.50. Regardless, this being Wednesday morning ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, inserting a deeper pullback prior to probing new highs should be underway by the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2268.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2262.00 would be likely to trigger the 2263.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2272.00 | 2268.50 |
| …would target | 2277.25 | 2273.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.50 | 2262.00 |
| …would target | 2260.00 | 2256.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday left “unfinished business below” from oversold RSIs at 2262.25 coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The dip at that time was seeking strong-handed buyers to sponsor resuming the rally — they weren’t attracted by gapping up and extending higher to 2269.50, so a pullback was attracted down to 2262.00.
The dip stopped optimistically short before bouncing to 2267.50 into the close, too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, and too little to prevent a deeper overnight dip. The afternoon bias environment had already peaked there, so only returning to it did not reflect strong-handed buyers.
Gapping up Wednesday above Tuesday’s 2269.50 high could prevent a deeper dip, and already be back on-track to probing the new highs above 2273.00. Otherwise, breaking under Tuesday’s 2262.25 low would have only a brief opportunity to snap back up, or else start seeking buyers below 2260.50.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down retested the 1.0410 lowest calculable objective that had held already last week. Bouncing back up to 1.0435 avoided a second consecutive close under it that would have required the decline to extend. Almost any initial strength Wednesday morning would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective bounce’s 1136.50 signal had triggered artificially and wasn’t immediately rejected, giving a benefit of the doubt to extending the bounce. It didn’t. Tuesday’s break back under 1136.50 doesn’t prevent the bounce from extending, but it opens the door as widely to simply extending down to the 1118.00 objective still in-play..
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday fulfilled the 15.66 to within 1 penny and reversed up sharply back into positive territory. The opening gap below must still be tested from above, and it’s premature to expect a durable rally leg, but this action does allow a bottom to begin forming..
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s gap down within Monday’s range didn’t reject Monday’s gap up, so even the price weakness reflects optimism that is only delaying fulfilling the outstanding requirement for at least one more lower close, and probably making a more substantial new low likely..
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday to test 53.75 didn’t extend, and was retraced to fill the gap back down to Monday’s ~53.10 close. While a positive close would fulfill the minimum requirement of Friday’s sub-optimal breakout, a retest of last Sunday night’s 54.90-55.30 highs remains outstanding..
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s dip to 3.33 had been retraced before Monday’s open but never rejected intraday, so trending down deeper into Tuesday’s open helped confirm the 3.19 target is in-play, already testing 3.24 intraday..