S&P
Mid-day Update… Shift change.
Selling persists as long as possible.
There was a greater vulnerability to probing lower this morning, despite it being a no-bias environment. And perhaps because of being a no-bias environment, its 2255.00 bias-down signal defined the window’s lower-end. Mostly.
2255.00 didn’t break until after coming to within view of the bias environment lapsing at 11:30. Touching support at 2252.00 reacted up to attack 2259.00 at noon. Trending back down through the noon hour fell to 2249.50 just before triggering bias-down. Its 2249.00 bias-down target need not be met any closer than the 2-3 ticks already attacking it.
Now the bullish WedEX influence should begin to dominate price action. The nearest buy signal is 2252.75 which is being tested now. The balance of the afternoon could retest the low — despite only 3-minute RSI being oversold at the low so it doesn’t require a retest — so long as any fresh low or pullback resolves up to a fresh high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 19, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only one econ report scheduled for Monday, and it does have a little track record for influencing price action. Its effect could be magnified for being the day’s only report. Yellen’s appearance will likely generate headlines when asked about three more rate hikes next year.
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Janet Yellen Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2266.00 | 2261.00 |
| …would target | 2271.00 | 2266.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2259.25 | 2254.25 |
| …would target | 2254.00 | 2249.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back down to unchanged.
Pre-open rally is retraced.
Already trying to rally overnight, this morning’s 2264.00 bias-up signal was touched before the open. But not after the open. It certainly didn’t trigger, but neither was its test rejected. That would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal.
Sliding just a little has tested 2257.25. Or is still testing 2257.25. It hasn’t actually been rejected, although back above 2260.25 and 2261.50 would be likely also to test 2264.00. Meanwhile, any fresh low would likely test 2255.00, and possibly also probe under it, despite this being a no-bias environment.
None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX influence likely to arrive after the noon hour. Nothing, other than this morning being an appropriate window to expend selling pressure that clears the way for upside into and out of the weekend.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight bounce extended just enough to actually touch 2264.00. That’s this morning’s bias-up signal, which is resistance. Touching it post-open without also exceeding it through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal. Not touching it at all by 10:15 could still dip to 2255.00, if not already triggering it, anyway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.