S&P
The First Trade… Unenthusiastic.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday was greeted by the prior afternoon’s slide from 2273.00 to 2243.00. Prior lows had held through the close, and attractions above were outstanding. A credible recovery would have rallied almost immediately, but Thursday morning’s rally to 2267.75 — though sizable — began too late. It was retraced to within a couple of points of its 2251.00-2252.00 open, with the close bouncing back up to 2260.00. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the 2252.75 low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another choppy night of sideways action almost greeted this morning’s open. But a rally is already being attempted from the 2256.50 overnight low, and it is now in positive territory attacking 2264.00.
If, then…
Quadruple witch expiration has some unique nuances, but today is mostly influenced by Friday Factors. Like the morning’s bias tending to persist through the noon hour. Maintaining a gap up would be bullish. But oversold RSIs below still require a retest. And the bullish WedEX influence doesn’t begin until coming out of the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be likely to trigger the 2264.00 bias-up signal at 10:!5. Exiting the open under 2261.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2268.75 | 2264.00 |
| …would target | 2274.75 | 2270.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2259.75 | 2255.00 |
| …would target | 2253.75 | 2249.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s 2260.25 was ultimately attacked to within 1 tick. Just coming to within 3 ticks is sufficient to neutralize the objective. Potential to also retrace the 1:20 2263.25 print remains intact, but probably within the context of rallying back to and through Thursday morning’s 2267.75 high. Meanwhile, nothing prevents probing fresh lows overnight, or Friday morning, before the passively bullish WedEX becomes influential.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Detour down done.
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today’s post-market Wrap will be held a half-hour early, beginning at 3:33pm ET.
This afternoon’s 2260.25 bias-down signal had held two tests during the noon hour, and did not trigger. 
A pattern had formed suggesting a break lower anyway, with room to the afternoon’s 2254.25 bias-down target.
A break lower quickly slid to 2252.75. But every bar probing under the 2254.25 target also overlapped it. No lower target was put into play. No lower target, but an objective was created — oversold 1-mijnute and 3-minute RSIs at the low require its retest.
Maybe later. The break’s timing makes it “no-bias trending” that requires retracing at least the 2260.25 bias-down signal. Currently, it’s being attacked to within 2 ticks, which is 1 tick more than necessary to neutralize satisfy the requirement. There’s also potential to the 2263.25 1:20 print, and then higher.
Maybe later. The 1:20 print is often retested, too, but not always. Back under 2256.25 would target fresh session lows. And that would likely also test oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2243.00 low.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Regardless of the interim bounce, there had been no bullish reason for last Friday’s third return to the lows. Thursday’s gap down immediately fulfilled the 1.0430 target and extended lower to its room for noise down to 1.0365. Closing above 1.0390 would not prevent probing lower Friday, but a negative close would be a little less likely
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Plunging to test 1142.00 after Wednesday’s FOMC news was extended lower overnight to attack 1127.00, and then lower Thursday morning to test 1124.50. Bounces have room up to 1135.50 just as noise, with room for noise below down to 1118.00 that is likely to be tested.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had returned down to 16.90 for which there was no bullish reason, as proved out by trending down sharply overnight to probe new lows under 16.75. Thursday morning extended down even lower to 15.92, with further room down to 15.67.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC news had attacked prior lows, which were probed by a new low at 147-04 before Thursday’s open. A bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s 148-25 close which tried again to avoid fulfilling the requirement for at least one more new low close before a bottom could form.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A pullback from Sunday night’s high was likely to end Wednesday, or to at least begin recovering immediately Thursday. Gapping down to fresh lows Thursday instead doesn’t reverse the trend down. But it does make a bounce — triggered above 51.75 — likelier to hold a retest of the rally’s 52.75 target, and probably also last Sunday night’s 54.50 high..
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness. That didn’t prevent an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction that blipped-up momentarily to 3.59. But its reaction then spiked back down to probe fresh lows for the pullback at 3.39. Closing at a new relative low fulfills the minimum requirement of Monday’s confirmed breakout. Closing above 3.52 would reverse the trend back up, but there is meanwhile room for lower lows down to 3.31.
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