S&P
Mid-day Update…
PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today’s post-market Wrap will be held a half-hour early, beginning at 3:33pm ET.
This morning’s rally had extended through its 2264.00 bias-up target to attack 2268.00. Failing to hold the 2265.50 pullback limit prevented extending to the next higher objective at 2270.00. Instead, a pullback into the noon hour has twice tested this afternoon’s 2260.25 bias-down signal.
And the signal’s support held. It’s being retested now.
Recovering 2264.00 would start to target a retest of this morning’s high. Extending to 2270.00 need not be delayed by the 2267.00 bias-up signal defining the window’s upper-end.
Back under 2261.25 (being tested now) could launch “no-bias trending,” probing under the 2060.25 bias-down signal despite this being a no-bias environment. Its recovery would be required, but meanwhile there would be room down to the 2254.25 bias-down target.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday is Quadruple Witch expiration, and the passively bullish WedEX suggests an upward bias into and out of the weekend. But not necessarily Friday morning, which still has a couple of higher-profile econ reports, albeit not with any track record for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2271.75 | 2267.00 |
| …would target | 2276.75 | 2272.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2265.00 | 2260.25 |
| …would target | 2259.00 | 2254.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Jumping out of quick sand.
Late surge holds test of its target.
A credible recovery would have been obviously underway much sooner, rather than later. 
Fluctuating in a wide 5-point range around the 2251.00 opening print, and yesterday’s 2252.00 cash session close, did not resolve during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
And, then, suddenly… it did resolve. Up. Sharply and relentlessly, until piercing the 2264.00 bias-up target by 1 tick.
Consolidating since then down to 2258.75 missed two chances at a deeper retracement back to the 2256.75 bias-up signal. Now the 2264.00 bias-up target is being exceeded, despite it having held its test through 10:15 — which is perfectly acceptable since this remains a bias-up environment.
The next higher objective is 2270.00 so long as 2265.50 holds tests as support.. Yesterday’s 2272.50 high had stopped pessimistically short of touching Tuesday’s 2273.00 high, where somewhat overbought RSIs all but require a retest. So does yesterday’s 2243.00 low, eventually.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
BOE’s policy statement had triggered a reaction from the overnight range’s 2257.00 upper-end to probe more than 1 point under its 2151.00 lows. Bouncing 3 points attacked 2253.00 and resolved down to 2247.25. Another bounce attacked 2255.00. None of which assures extending any higher post-open, or bouncing again from another dip. But any recovery should be obvious much sooner rather than later to be credible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.