Post-open Review

Gap up extends higher post-open.

Gapping up 6 points above yesterday’s high to 2286.50 wasn’t necessary to extend the trend this morning. Yesterday afternoon’s rally had gained traction already, all but requiring it. So, a quick dip down to 2284.25 recovered to probe a fresh high,  and a consolidation resolved by trending up to 2290.25.

None of which ever touched this morning’s 2283.25 bias-up target. Exceeding it through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2288.00. It was being tested at 10:15, but room for noise above it to 2292.25 is being probed now.

Closing today above its opening print would essentially trigger a breakout. Still subject to confirmation, it would probably extend higher to 2320.00. But until the close, unless the afternoon’s bias-up signal is triggered from positive territory, no higher objective is in-play.

Closing under the opening print wouldn’t by itself form a top. But it would start one. Today’s gap up would still require being tested sometime after dipping back under 2280.25 or deeper.

Muted opening strength isn’t attracting sellers.

The 2263.50 opening print did gap up above yesterday afternoon’s highs. But it was still several points short of the 2266.00 resistance being tested at yesterday’s open. And extending higher post-open wasn’t immediate, and it stopped short of touching the 2266.00 bias-up signal.

Reactions down held 2262.00. If buyers weren’t going to exert much effort, then absorbing them wasn’t going to be due much reward. No-bias was triggered, but no offsetting test of the bias-down signal is required,

A half-hour rally off the retest of 2262.00 is piercing prior highs up to 2266.00. Too late to trigger bias-up, but recovering it through 10:30 could have invalidated the no-bias. Overlapping it does not qualify.

No-bias, or not, probing higher anyway should be doomed to failure. There’s room for noise up to yesterday’s 2267.50 opening peak. Meanwhile, breaking back under 2263.00 would have room down to the 2256.00 bias-down signal until the bias environment begins lapsing — and then no support until fresh lows.

Gap down’s recovery attempt fails.

Gapping open 4 points under Friday’s 2266.25 cash session close could only touch the 2261.50 bias-down signal. Reacting up filled the gap up to 2267.50. Retracing back down probed the open’s low, and Friday’s 2260.00 low, down to 2258.75.

Triggering the grace period didn’t prevent triggering late bias-down. The 2255.50 bias-down target is met already — too late to renew the bias-down, but neither was it tested and held through 10:15.. So, extending down probably also retests Thursday’s 2253.00 low, if not also the prior week’s 2248.50 low.

The earliest indication of not extending down would be to recover 2265.00, preferably through the bias environment exit. Otherwise, a deeper pullback is underway.

Post-open surge threatens new high.

The overnight rally up to 2268.00 greeted the open at 2264.00. Essentially. A last-minute blip-down to 2263.00 spiked back up to attack 2268.00. Anyway, the spike didn’t slow post-open, and extended to probe the 2272.00 bias-up target by 3 ticks.

2272.00 held through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. This is still a bias-up environment, so a pullback has room down to its 2265.00 bias-up signal. In fact, a probe under 2268.50-2269.50 is threatening as much.

Regardless of a deeper pullback this morning, new highs are threatened, too. Just maintaining the open’s surge through 10:15 suggests any dip will recover. Back above 2270.25 would signal the rally is resuming, next targeting 2278.25.

Open’s surge reverses down hard.

Yesterday’s gap up had immediately plunged and was almost as quickly recovered. That didn’t extend higher intraday, but neither did the open’s drop resume.

This morning’s open gapped up a little, and then surged momentarily to touch the 2269.25 bias-up signal. That reacted down, too. A little later than yesterday, and less aggressively. But almost all of the recovery from yesterday afternoon was retraced.

Both drops come from probes above prior intraday highs. This creates room to expend selling pressure before it can damage the recovery potential. Yesterday, that prevented reversing the trend down.

It’s no easier to reverse the trend down today — but it can still be tried.

An offsetting test of the 2261.50 bias-down signal is already satisfied to within 3 ticks. Probing under it during this window would be “no-bias trending” that requires recovering, if not also back to the 2264.00 10:15 print. Probing under it after the bias environment begins lapsing would not require any recovery, and could extend down to test 2248.50.

Meanwhile, back above 2265.50 would start to signal that the post-open drop would be recovered. And recovering a second consecutive post-open drop would still likely rally to new highs.