Post-open Review

Wide opening range triggers only no-bias.

The overnight rally to 2268.50 had reacted down to 2263.00, where yesterday’s late bounce had ended the day. The 2268.50 overnight high was retraced to within 1 tick. Despite being 2 points back above Friday’s lows, the recovery failed again.

Greeting the open 1 point under the 2266.00 bias-up signal slid quickly to 2258.25. The opening 15 minutes of volatility began lapsing back at the overnight reaction’s 2263.00 low. Firming further eventually attacked the 2266.00 bias-up signal to within 1 tick.But only after triggering no-bias.

Not touching the bias-down signal post-open, no offsetting test of the 2256.00 bias-down signal is required. Touching the bias-down signal 1 minute prior to the open should be noted, regardless of the opens’ slide already having expended a lot of selling pressure.

Friday’s range avoids recovery.

The overnight bounce from 2257.50 had touched Friday’s 2266.25 low. Which held. It’s also this morning’s bias-down signal. Reacting down greeted the open at 2262.50. The opening 15 minutes trended down deeper, and eventually 2260.00 was tested.

So, the probe under Friday’s low was not isolated to the overnight. A complete retracement of the overnight bounce from 2257.50 became likely.

That didn’t prevent a bounce. A big bounce. The biggest bounce possible, without reversing the trend back up — holding a test of the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Actually, the grace period was invoked, but its exit triggered late bias-down.

The alternative would have been bullish. Very bullish. The most bullish possible. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters.

Instead, the bullish scenario depends on ignoring the bias-down signal. Which is possible, since it triggered late, and since it’s 2260.75 target has been met.

Back under 2264.00 should confirm the 2260.75 bias-down target will be met. Its test is likely also to visit 2257.50. Otherwise, just hovering around 2266.00 until the bias environment begins lapsing could start rallying back into Friday’s range, and through it.

Bias-up narrowly avoided. Too narrowly.

Delaying a post-open rally would have been likely in order to stretch the rubber band down to 2257.50. There was no reason to delay rallying if the pre-open dip to 2262.75 were going to suffice in its place.

Post-open action did immediately surge. Filling the gap at Wednesday’s 2270.25 close was worked through gradually up to 2273.50. But the 2271.50 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to trigger the grace period.

Bias-up did not trigger, but did it hold? Probing under it down to 2269.50 wasn’t recovered at 10:30, which is a “late no-bias.” This puts into play an offsetting test of the 2262.00 bias-down signal.

One important observation to that: A 1-tick difference prevented touching the bias-up signal at 10:30. That 1 tick prevented triggering noN-bias, which would have prevented putting into play any target.

Fluctuating narrowly for the next half-hour would be just like a typical noN-bias. And a typical noN-bias would then often behave as if it has just triggered bias-up. Regardless of its timing, I’m giving a benefit of the doubt to any break beyond a 2269.50-2272.50 range. A valid break either way would likely extend into the afternoon.

Pullback low’s timing is extended.

Opening at the 2264.00 bias-down signal soon broke lower to test the 2258.25 bias-down target. Consolidating there into the second half-hour, plunging to within 3 ticks of the next likely support at 2250.50.

A bounce to 2255.50.has now resolved down to probe under 2250.50 by 3 ticks. And now lower.

Regardless of various interim support along the way down, recall that the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2247.50. Room for noise under it down to 2245.25. As relevant is probing under yesterday morning’s low, which makes the pullback likely to extend into this afternoon.

Bias-up signal tested, thrice. Held, twice.

Rallying this morning required buyers to be productive almost immediately. Even that could have been absorbed by sellers, so long as the 2267.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And especially so long as the bounce was reversed back under 2266.00.

The open didn’t firm immediately, but it firmed. And it tested 2267.25, then reversed down to 2264.00 as no-bias was triggered. Putting into play the offsetting test of the 2261.25 bias-down signal didn’t prevent retesting 2267.25. It held again through 10:30.

The no-bias environment triggered, and avoided invalidation, but not for lack of proximity. The 2267.25 bias-up signal must now define this window’s upper-end. So, probing above it would be no-bias trending.

It’s now being pierced by almost 2 points, but not yet above its 3-minute high

I’m willing to give the fresh high some benefit of the doubt for staging another detour like yesterday morning. Regardless, I would be ready to reverse short back under 2266.00, at the latest.