Post-open Review

Narrow opening range around unchanged.

Support at 2255.50 had looked shaky pre-open. It was pierced by only 1 tick before bouncing to attack the 2259.00 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. The signal wasn’t touched, and it didn’t trigger, so holding that 2255.50 support didn’t accomplish much.

Meanwhile, three of the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level, within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 2257.50 cash session close. that’s a recipe for “dry cleaners morning.”

Trending attempts are still possible, but not likely, and not likely to succeed. Dipping this morning to 2254.00 is likelier than a bounce up to 2259.00. But there’s no requirement for either

Opening plunge not rejected, but also not extended.

Retesting the 2260.25 overnight recovery’s high had reacted down to greet the open at 2258.50. That was not isolating the probe under yesterday’s low, which was the least bullish of the bullish scenarios. The only overt bullish scenario remaining would be to hold the 2257.50 bias-down signal’s test.

The post-open plunge to and through the overnight low down to 2254.00 didn’t make that easy. Or possible.

Ultimately, 2257.50 didn’t hold its test. And it also didn’t not hold its test. It was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, and also at 10:30 when the grace period lapsed. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-down, and not no-bias.

noN-bias is still the least bullish scenario, but not necessarily bearish. Back under 2255.75 would start to signal the break extending, anyway. Further downside would be attracted to 2252.25, 2249.50, and possibly lower. Exiting the bias environment back above 2260.50 and preferably 2262.00 would be bullish.

No rally, slow drift.

The unchanged open at 2265.50 blipped-up to 2268.00 and pierced the overnight high momentarily. But then it went the way of all blips-up and blapped back down. Hard, attacking the 2263.50 overnight low to within 2 ticks. And now probing under it by 2 ticks.

Not already rallying or sliding at the open could have just ranged sideways through the morning (or longer). But not already rallying left the door open to sliding, and to attractions below at oversold RSIs from yesterday’s 2262.25 low. It could be probed to 2260.50, as RSIs haven’t even attacked oversold territory yet.

If selling were to get underway and not hold a test of 2260.50, then there’s deeper oversold RSIs requiring retests. But a rally isn’t likely today before late-afternoon, if at all.

Gap up extends.

Reacting down pre-open from testing the 2267,25 bias-up target greeted the open with a blip-down to 2264.00. Its reaction was quick, and quickly extended up to 2269.50. That’s the highest level since last Wednesday afternoon’s initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC statement.

It didn’t last this morning, either.

The reaction down to 2265.75 only overlapped the 2267.25 bias-up target at 10:!5, instead of exceeding it to renew the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, with room back down to the 2262.00 bias-up signal just as noise. Back under 2265.00 (being tested now) would suggest a dip to 2262.00 is underway.

Having dipped to 2265.00, back above 2267.25 would start to signal the rally is extending. It’s too late to renew the bias-up signal, but extending higher anyway would target a retest of last Tuesday’s 2273.00 high. And the longer that takes, the less time available for a reversal to begin by Wednesday afternoon, when strong hands will already be positioned for the weekend holiday.

Early surge finally extends higher.

The overnight rally to 2260.75 created room to expend selling pressure without it yet damaging the chart. Pre-open action had pulled back to 2256.00. Holding 2255.00 post-open would have been optimal. Ultimately, the gap back to Friday’s 2254.00 cash session close was touched.

And then price shot higher. The opening 15 minutes of volatility to resolve up aggressively. This was an early clue to confirming a bullish WedEX influence remained alive for this morning.

The next clue did not develop, as bias-up did not trigger. More so, a post-open test of the 2260.25 bias-up signal held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2251.25 bias-down signal. No grace period was invoked, and fresh highs through 10:30 didn’t invalidate the bias signal.

But fresh highs did print after 10:30. And the pattern’s 2259.75 buy signal got a benefit of the doubt from the bullish WedEX. That has extended up to 2263.50.

No matter how productive, the bullish WedEX lapses along with this morning’s bias environment at 11:30. And that’s now within view just 10-15 minutes away. The 2251.25 bias-down signal’s test will become “unfinished business below” unless the noon hour is entered above this morning’s 2267.25 bias-up target.