Post-open Review

Pre-open rally is retraced.

Already trying to rally overnight, this morning’s 2264.00 bias-up signal was touched before the open. But not after the open. It certainly didn’t trigger, but neither was its test rejected. That would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2255.00 bias-down signal.

Sliding just a little has tested 2257.25. Or is still testing 2257.25. It hasn’t actually been rejected, although back above 2260.25 and 2261.50 would be likely also to test 2264.00. Meanwhile, any fresh low would likely test 2255.00, and possibly also probe under it, despite this being a no-bias environment.

None of which has anything to do with the bullish WedEX influence likely to arrive after the noon hour. Nothing, other than this morning being an appropriate window to expend selling pressure that clears the way for upside into and out of the weekend.

Late surge holds test of its target.

A credible recovery would have been obviously underway much sooner, rather than later. Fluctuating in a wide 5-point range around the 2251.00 opening print, and yesterday’s 2252.00 cash session close, did not resolve during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

And, then, suddenly… it did resolve. Up. Sharply and relentlessly, until piercing the 2264.00 bias-up target by 1 tick.

Consolidating since then down to 2258.75 missed two chances at a deeper retracement back to the 2256.75 bias-up signal. Now the 2264.00 bias-up target is being exceeded, despite it having held its test through 10:15 — which is perfectly acceptable since this remains a bias-up environment.

The next higher objective is 2270.00 so long as 2265.50 holds tests as support.. Yesterday’s 2272.50 high had stopped pessimistically short of touching Tuesday’s 2273.00 high, where somewhat overbought RSIs all but require a retest. So does yesterday’s 2243.00 low, eventually.

Overnight dip extends, briefly.

Breaking under the overnight range’s lower-end probed under yesterday’s late 2265.50 lows down to 2262.75. Its post-open reaction touched 2267.75 before reversing back down, targeting a probe under the pre-open low. It was probed by 1 point down to 2261.75.

The reversal’s timing touched the 2264.00 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. And after another retest of the low, 2264.00 was tested again. Tested again, but still being tested when the grace period lapsed at 10:30.

This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-down targeting 2258.00. Not a no-bias targeting a test of the 2270.75 bias-up signal. it is noN-bias, without any bias requirement this morning.

Fresh lows would still be likely to test 2258.00. Extending higher would still be likely to test 2270.75. Any resolution at all is hampered by strong-handed sponsorship generally sidelined just before a high-profile event like this afternoon’s FOMC.

Probing above Sunday night’s high.

The opening bar touched yesterday morning’s 2259.00 high and extended quickly through it. Maintaining its recovery through 9:45 made the bias-up signal likely to trigger. Never mind that, as its 2261.25 bias-up target has been exceeded. And exceeding the bias-up target through 10:15 puts into play the next higher target. Never mind that, too, as that was at least 2266.50, which was tested already up to 2267.75.

A symmetrical triangle formed at the high. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its first break, whether or not temporary, was triggered under 2264.00 and has fulfilled its 2260.50 minimum objective. Probing under it has so far still overlapped it, and not broken lower.

Back above 2264.00 would signal fresh highs in-play. Retesting Sunday night’s high made 2270.00 likely to be tested, too. And that would be too shallow to qualify as a “more substantial reversal in the opposite direction.”

But the open’s high doesn’t require a retest. And anxiousness ahead of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is eerily absent, as buyers throw everything AND the kitchen sink into the rally. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2259.00 wouldn’t itself be a sell signal, but it would undermine the upside momentum

Post-open bounce shallower than overnight surge.

We got an extra probe above Friday’s highs, but nothing to invalidate that a multi-session downleg may be launching today.

Opening at this morning’s 2253.25 bias-down signal fluctuated there through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. That created congestion which was likely to be retested, whether only temporarily or on the way to reversing in the opposite direction.

Although probing above Friday’s highs had been isolated to the overnight, price broke higher anyway. It retraced 61.8% of the overnight retracement back up to 2259.00. Reacting down sharply again isolated the post-open break higher to between the 9:45 opening and the 10:15 bias timing window.

Reacting down sharply tested the open’s congestion, but only attacked the  2253.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. Breaking it 1 minute later was too late to invoke the grace period. Regardless, probing fresh lows through 10:30 has invalidated the no-bias.

Not a late bias-down, not a noB-bias, but invalidated bias. The parameters can still influence price if tested, but their tests aren’t required, and their tests aren’t required to resolve in any specific way. Exiting the bias environment above Friday’s high would target new highs.