Post-open Review

Fresh intraday highs leaving fewer attractions above.

Yesterday afternoon’s buyers had gained traction for their efforts, so trending up this morning was already likely. Simply not gapping down this morning would be more bullish than bearish.

The open barely touched yesterday’s 2174.00 cash session close before surging back up to Tuesday’s prior highs. Filling the gap up to its 2177.50 close was not at all resistant. The slope did slow upon approaching 2180.00, but it was probed up to 2181.50.

A lot of likely upside attractions are now neutralized. In their place, this morning’s 2177.75 bias-up signal has triggered. Its 2183.50 bias-up target is in-play. It remains in-play so long as the bias environment isn’t exited under this morning’s 2168.50 bias-down signal.

Tuesday’s post-close surge to 2185.00 can still be retested on the way to 2186.00. And there’s room for noise up to 2192.00. If testing higher highs is going to be rejected through expiration, then any upside should be satisfied today, before closing back under the 2180.00 area or lower.

Holding the pullback now allows one more rally leg.

Yesterday morning’s 2169.50 “lower prior highs” had been tested thoroughly pre-open. But the retest came just a couple of minutes before coming within 3-5 minutes of the open. That was too early to rely on it serving as if the lower prior highs had been tested post-open.

None of which prevented bouncing into and out of the open to probe 2174.25 by 1 point. That’s where a short-entry was likely. Its reaction down to 2170.00 stopped 2 ticks short of touching 2169.50.

Since then, the 2173.25 bias-down signal almost triggered, and almost didn’t. It ultimately triggered noN-bias. Not a bias-down targeting fresh lows, and not a no-bias that requires an offsetting test of the 2181.25 bias-up signal.

But I’m expecting a probe above yesterday’s 2178.00 cash session high, anyway. That’s the reward to yesterday afternoon’s buyers for having gained traction. Not necessarily before noon, regardless of the potential for extending higher to also retest the overnight high. But probably not if the bias environment is exited under 2173.25.

Post-open dip recovers to fresh highs.

The open gapped up and quickly worked higher through the 2166.25 bias-up signal by 5 ticks. Reacting down to 2163.25 tested yesterday afternoon’s 2164.50 high as support. It was still being overlapped as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed. It was not optimal behavior for maintaining a gap up.

But it held.

And a quick retest of the reaction low was reversed up sharply, extending to attack the 2169.75 overnight highs to within 3 ticks. This is a bias-up environment. Its 2171.75 bias-up target is in-play. It’s the next domino on the way back up to 2180.00 and possibly (momentarily) higher.

None of which precludes there being a corrective dip.

In fact, 1-minute RSI avoided touching overbought and then deteriorated. Now a reaction down is testing the 2166.25 bias-up signal as support. Its test should ultimately hold. And while stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, that hasn’t aided enabled retesting at least two other overnight highs in the past week.

But so long as the bias environment doesn’t lapse back under yesterday afternoon’s 2164.50 high, the likely resolution remains up. Back under 2164.50 would otherwise start to point more substantially down.

Sticky close is undermining trending attempts.

The opening print was at this mornings 2165.50 bias-up signal. Price quickly slid to Friday’s 2161.50 and 2160.00 futures and cash session closes. That also tested Friday’s “lower prior highs,” which launched a bounce up to 2168.00 through the bias timing window. But the 2165.50 bias-up signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

Late bias-down triggered at 10:30, instead of bias-up, despite the grace period having been triggered at the earliest possible moment during a surge higher. But the overnight surge was also rejected, so the bias signal’s weakness was not an anomaly. An offsetting test of the 2153.50 bias-down signal is in-play.

Overnight probing above Friday’s range was not isolated. So, backing-and-filling into Friday’s range can still resolve bullishly. The 2158.00 overnight low was just touched, finally probing post-open under unchanged, making a deeper probe likely.

Ranging and ranging and ranging around the gap down finally breaks.

The bias timing window through 10:15 ranged choppily around the opening print. The bias-down target was triggered grudgingly, and it was met barely. That late dip could have served as a rubber band to snap back up. But a bounce attacked 2157.50 and is now reacting down sharply to attack 2151.00.

It was a late bias-down, and the same leg that invoked the grace period also attacked the 2151.75 bias-down target to within 3 ticks. It didn’t require being met, but now it has been probed.

The market still risks a deeper pullback since resuming the rally has been delayed. And this being a Friday, the morning’s late bias-down can persist through the noon hour. Its minimum target is met, twice, so a recovery is still possible. But it wouldn’t be signaled from under 2157.50.