Post-open Review

Very narrow opening range.

The fluctuated narrowly around 2205.50 through 9:45 to avoid any preliminary signal. The 2204.25 bias-up signal was no more or less likely to trigger at 10:15.

It triggered.

Price meanwhile improved up to 2207.75, which neutralizes all “new Globex trend extremes.” Only the 2220.00 target remains outstanding, which triggered Monday above 2192.00.

Unfortunately, there’s no assurance of extending this morning, or of drifting back down. The open lacked volatility, not even attempting to trend by 9:45, let alone succeeding or being rejected.

The upside still gets a benefit of the doubt since bias-up triggered. Its 2209.50 bias-up target need not be met today. Back under 2205.00 would start becoming attracted back down to 2192.00.

Fresh post-open lows recover to narrowly avoid bias-down.

The pre-open slide ultimately extended to greet the open at 2193.25. Bouncing up to 2197.00 was resolved down to 2192.00. That was yesterday morning’s low, itself holding a test of Monday afternoon’s lows.

That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility — down 8 points from the close and testing support. Any lower would have fallen over the edge, perhaps less in terms of price than in marginalizing buyers for the balance of the morning.

But bouncing high enough for long enough invoked the grace period, and the 2195.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering. Exiting the grace period above the pre-10:15 2197.00 high was helpful confirmation. Crude Oil’s reaction to its EIA report also helped extend up to 2199.25.

An offsetting test of the 2204.25 bias-up signal is in-play. The signal has already been productive. So, 2204.25 will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. Having at least attacked support, flat-to-higher ranging is likely for the next three hours while awaiting the FOMC Minutes.

Gapping up and holding.

This morning’s 2197.00 bias-up signal held neatly as support when tested by the overnight pullback from 2203.00. Bouncing into and out of the open quickly extended up to 2201.00. Another reaction down to 2198.00 was recovered back to 2201.00.

It’s too late to reject 2197.00 and avoid triggering bias-up. It’s too late for a break under 2197.00 to invalidate the bias-up. The 2202.50 bias-up target is in-play. Its test is likely also to visit the 2203.00 high for being a “new Globex trend extreme,” potentially up to 2105.50.

None of which is preventing yet another reaction from retesting 2198.00. Sellers aren’t entirely marginalized, and a runaway rally isn’t likely. Under 2197.50 could extend down another 3 points, and still be likely to recover.

Probing fresh highs, albeit only temporarily.

The 2186.50 open was under Friday’s 2187.50 opening high, so the gap was contained within the range. That didn’t prevent extending higher to within 1 tick of the 2191.50 bias-up target.

1-minute RSI was diverging negatively again when 3-minute RSI finally left being persistently overbought, and price started diving. The 2195.00 bias-up signal was touched at the dive’s low, well after 10:15 and just before 10:30. So, this is  a bias-up environment.

The character of price action at the high suggests it will be retested in even the most bearish scenario. Presumably, its retest would at least touch 2192.00. That’s not necessary, and it’s even unlikely if 2195.00 is probed when the bias environment starts lapsing at 11:30.

The bearish WedEX’s influence is probably moot, unless the balance of the morning were to trend down through the overnight lows — which is unlikely, because that would be under the bias-up signal during a bias-up environment. But there remains a window for injecting a pullback before Thursday’s bullish seasonality, so I’m not expecting volatility to subside.

Almost triggered bias-up. Didn’t.

The open was greeted at the 2186.50 overnight high, testing the 2186.25 bias-up signal. A blip-up touched a new high at 2187.50 and then blapped-down to probe under 2184.00.

Recovering 2184.00 through 9:45 would have made triggering the bias-up signal likelier. But its reactions up never even touched 2186.25 again. And now 10:15 has passed.

This is a no-bias environment. Having tested the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2179.25 bias-down signal is in-play. If tested this morning, then it should define the bias environment’s lower-end.

The signal has already been productive since triggering as fresh session lows touch 2182.00. Exiting the bias environment above its 2186.25 bias-up signal could still invalidate the 2179.25 objective below.