Post-open Review

REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.

The open was greeted nearly unchanged from yesterday’s 2192.00 futures close. Post-open action was initially hesitant to trend either way, not until being halfway through — exactly halfway through — the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The timing could have been more abrupt to qualify as the characteristic a morning rally required. It certainly couldn’t have been less abrupt.

So, fresh highs got up to 2195.50 stopping short of the 2197.00 bias-up signal. This is a no-bias environment. Exceeding 2197.00 through 10:30 could still invalidate that it wasn’t recovered in time to trigger. Meanwhile, it should now define the morning’s upper-end if tested.

Neither recovery path was followed at the open, so a morning rally is likely to be only temporary. In fact, a reaction down is now testing 2191.75, whose break would start to signal that the post-open hesitation is exerting its influence. The 2187.50 bias-down signal should define the morning’s lower-end, unless broken through 10:30. Retesting the overnight lows would likely extend deeper to also test 2181.00.

Choppy open still gains downside traction.

The pre-open bounce up to 2203.00 held its late resistance from yesterday afternoon. Post-open action immediately slid to test the 2197.50 bias-down signal, then bounced again. Another drop came to within 1 tick of the 2194.25 overnight low, then bounced again. One more bounce managed to invoke the grace period, which resolved down.

Ultimately, this is a bias-down environment. Testing the 2192.00 bias-down target is likely also to visit 2187.50.

At this stage, nothing yet requires anything deeper, let alone durable. Indeed, the bias-down signal missed opportunities to be optimal — triggering late, then not already breaking to fresh lows through the 10:30 grace period. Even now, RSIs are avoiding oversold territory despite finally retesting the overnight low..

Trending down is being fought by limiting dips to only short spurts, which tends to resolve in a sudden, steep and substantial push down. That leg may be starting now as 2192.00 is being attacked to within 2 ticks.

Divergent post-open actions.

Gapping up above prior highs was maintained at least halfway thorough the opening 15 minutes of volatility to establish an anchor. An anchor provides a recovery in case of a corrective dip. We’ll see.

Maintaining the gap up above the prior afternoon’s high — after having trended down into the close — formed a “session-long rally” setup. But it is at risk of inverting down, so that each timing window probes the prior timing window’s low, instead of probing the prior timing window’s high.

That risk of inverting down comes because bias-up didn’t trigger. The 2207.75 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. And extending down to 2204.00 didn’t recover in time to trigger late. Its reaction up is testing 2207.75 now, but it’s too late to trigger. Instead, an offsetting test of the 2199.75 bias-down signal is in-play.

An offsetting test of the 2192.75 bias-down target is almost in-play, too. It would be in-play officially had the 2113.25 bias-up target been touched. It was probed by 2 ticks pre-open, and attacked by 1 tick post-open, but not touched when its rejection would matter. Unofficially, be aware of the potential for extending down to 2192.75, anyway — which would likely also visit 2187.50.

Meanwhile, I’m concerned that this morning’s timing window influence is 10 minutes delayed. Perhaps the onslaught of OPEC headlines has concussed the market. Price action 10 minutes following each of the 9:45, 10:15 and 10:30 windows would better explain why the we’re currently under yesterday’s highs. Rallying this morning above 2208.75 would confirm it. The trend is otherwise down.

Fresh lows hold support, already neutralize upside attraction.

Greeting the open essentially unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00 didn’t sit there still. A bounce quickly touched an inflection point at 2202.50. Any higher would have triggered a buy signal, but price quickly inflected down to fresh lows. Fresh lows barely touched the 2196.50 bias-down signal.

Price has since stair-stepped higher into a bigger bounce attacking the overnight highs. Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2203.75 bias-up signal. It is now being probed by fresh post-open highs up to 2205.00. There’s another couple of ticks above it of room for noise.

Back under 2201.50 would signal that the bounce was only a temporary detour on the way to lower lows. Touching 2205.50 would raise the sell signal to 2203.00. Exiting the no-bias environment above its 2203.75 bias-up signal isn’t likely, and not likely to extend without at least retesting 2203.75 or 2000.00.

Post-open action is stuck.

The overnight plunge to 2199.50 had recovered pre-open to test 2207.00. The open attacked overnight highs up to 2208.00. Gapping down did not extend lower, so sellers are not strong-handed.

Ultimately, the 2205.50 bias-down signal held its test through the 10:30 grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2211.50. That was produced by a favorable knee-jerk reaction to an inflationary econ report. But 2205.50 was quickly retraced.

And then some.

Now a fre3sh post-o0pen low has touched 2203.00, trying to reverse momentum down. Its objective would be to retest the 2199.50 overnight low. Exiting the bias environment above its 2198.00 bias-down target would make the 2211.50 objective become “unfinished business above.”

Invalidating the late no-bias is unlikely at this late stage. But it’s possible, and would have potential down to 2187.50.