Post-open Review

Open’s break not rejected, yet.

Not rallying quickly post-open and rejecting the overnight slide was likely to extend down. The open’s blip-up touched 2151.75 and reacted down to fresh lows at 2145.75. And then lower to 2144.50.

That fresh low created a new feature for buyers to reject. And as it would have been rejecting the overnight slide, rejecting the fresh low would be bullish.

So, how’s that going?

The bias signal’s grace period was avoided by 1 tick at 10:15. Then it avoided being invalidated by not decisively recovering the 2147.75 bias-down signal at 10:30. So, this is a bias-down environment by 1 tick at 10:15, and still overlapping 2147.75 at 10:30.

Not very convincing. But official.

There has yet to be a fresh low since 10:15. Exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2151.75 high could invalidate the bias-down. Otherwise, having then failed to reject fresh lows for an entire extra timing window, buyers could become marginalized for the day.

Post-open follow-through reflects meaningful strength.

The open’s gap up to 2150.50 extended up to 2154.25. More important than how high is for how long — not quickly rejecting the opening strength had undermined sellers.

A 3-point dip was recovered to fresh highs attacking 2156.00. And the 2153.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Next targeted are 2157.50 and 2160.00.

So much buying pressure to absorb yesterday’s bearish setup makes its resolution likely to be as bullish as the original setup could have been bearish. That means the morning is now likely to trend up. Not without resistance, twists and turns. But a fresh post-open low should be avoided.

Late sellers take a shot.

Delaying a sell-off post-open would not preclude there being a sell-off. A lesser chance for a sell-off, but not full protection. And the longer that a sell-off were delayed, the likelier it would be recovered entirely, regardless of how shallow or deep.

Initial strength did delay a sell-off. Opening at the 2156.50 bias-up signal and ranging around it created a sort of anchor. Before being able to extend higher, something sent price plunging 6 points under an inflection point at 2154.25. That soon extended to touch 2147.75.

Focus shifted quickly from testing the bias-up signal to testing the 2148.75 bias-down signal. It was overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period. Bouncing to 2151.00 and higher at 10:30 barely triggered a late no-bias.

This being a no-bias environment, albeit late, and despite already having tested the 2156.50 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of it was put into play. It was quickly tested. Meanwhile, this being a no-bias environment, the bias-up signal should define the range’s upper-end if tested. Which it is, so far.

We come within view of the bias environment lapsing within a half-hour. Breaking higher then would be credible for extending. The only “unfinished business below” would be oversold RSIs at the low, but being created by a knee-jerk reaction to news or to rumors does undermine their attraction.

Pre-open slide extends post-open, and then stops.

Extending the pre-open drop past the open eventually fell to 2149.00. That tested the upper-end of the overnight Symmetrical Triangle pattern’s 2147.50-2150.00 objective. Its reaction up tested the 2155.00 bias-down signal as resistance.

Bias-down triggered at 10:15. It wasn’t touched in time to invoke the grace period. And it wasn’t recovered through 10:30 to invalidate the bias-down.

Not triggering bias-down at 10:15 would have been very bullish. Having tested the 2149.75 bias-down target, then offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters would have been put into play.

None of which requires extending down. Bouncing back above the 2155.00 bias-down signal would allow raising the sell signal to 2152.75. It is otherwise at 2150.50, and meanwhile a bounce underway has room to test unchanged at 2160.00.

Sellers kinda sorta marginalized.

A morning rally would begin immediately and aggressively, essentially exploiting yesterday afternoon’s short-squeeze setup without further delay. That was the likeliest character for extending higher this morning. And the open did surge 5 points.

But it didn’t follow-through. Which wasn’t necessarily bearish — resuming yesterday’s decline was required to be as abrupt as a valid rally effort. Dipping to 2150.50 through several econ reports wasn’t considered to be more than backing-and-filling.

Bias-up didn’t trigger, but neither did no-bias. The 2155.50 bias-up signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Overlapping it at 10:30 avoided triggering a bias. This is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define the range’s upper-end, and its 2162.00 bias-up target didn’t require being met.

None of which has prevented extending higher anyway. Fresh post-open highs are probing almost 2 points above the bias-up target to 2164.50, retracing back to and through the origin of yesterday’s plunge. Sellers are very likely marginalized for the day. And despite its slow start (following a fast start), any rally today is likely to be substantial.