Post-open Review

Neither bias signal even touched.

The overnight reaction down had touched the 2157.50 bias-down signal. It wasn’t touched again, as bouncing into and out of the 2161.25 open extended up to 2165.75. Having touched neither bias signal, let alone exceeded either signal, this is a no-bias environment with no requirement to test the opposite signal or a target.

And with price fluctuating around unchanged, the market seems uninterested in even trying.

That said, while a fresh high isn’t recovered, exceeding 2166.25 would signal a failed rally effort underway, targeting 2169.25. Meanwhile, back under 2162.25 could retest the overnight low at the 2157.50 bias-down signal, while maintaining the no-bias environment.

The next opportunity for new parameters will be no sooner than coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing in one hour.

Gap up maintained, but not extended.

The overnight 10-point drop from fresh highs was already being retraced, when a pre-open surge ensured greeting the open above yesterday’s highs. The gap up to 2155.25 was extended 2 points. It didn’t extend higher, but neither was it rejected, not immediately. Maintaining the gap up above yesterday’s highs created an anchor.

Ultimately, dipping deep enough and for long enough failed to trigger bias-up. Having tested the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2145.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Fresh lows after 10:15, already testing 2149.75, have confirmed

Gapping up could have extended higher. If not, then reversing down would be sponsored by weak hands, and therefore only temporary. Exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2157.25 high could invalidate the objective, but it would otherwise become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding.

Recovering back up to the open’s anchor could intervene before fulfilling the 2145.00 downside objective. Even if 2145.00 were met first, the reaction up could be very abrupt.

Blip-down recovers from the abyss.

Pre-open action had continued sliding to test 2135.75. Post-open action — i.e. the first bar — spiked down from its 2137.25 open to pierce the overnight lows at 2132.75. No other bar probing under 2135.75 also probed a fresh low.

The probe of fresh lows was reversed back up to 2142.00. And that was extended up to 2148.25. Sellers didn’t gain traction.

Buyers didn’t gain traction, either. The 2146.00 bias-up signal was barely touched in time to invoke the grace period. But the no-bias signal held.  Already having tested the 2137.00 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of it isn’t required. But just as 2146.00 is assumed to be the next hour’s upper-end, testing 2137.00 should define the range’s lower-end.

Until the bias environment is within view of lapsing, 10-15 minutes before 11:30. Then breaking either way would be likelier to extend in that direction.

Retest of overnight lows trying to hang on.

Immediately rallying out of the open would have been credible for extending higher through the morning. There was no confusing the opening price action with a rally.

The 2148.00 opening print blipped-up to touch the 2149.00 bias-down target. That reversed down sharply to attack the 2144.25 overnight low. And a brief consolidation there was resolved by new lows down to 2141.25.

Being the next lower objective, testing and holding 2143.50 had potential to expend the morning’s selling pressure. It did take a little while of ranging around it. But no probe under 2143.50 was confirmed, and now 2149.00 is being attacked at 10:15

Attacked, but not recovered. This is a renewed bias-down environment Its 2143.50 renewed target has been met. And 2149.00 may be recovered up to the 2155.00 bias-down signal.

Or, not The only predictive observation — still relevant to the pattern — is that the decline had an opportunity to further entrench itself but didn’t. Recovering positive territory is the only pattern that would signal a bottom having formed today.

Gap down sticking to yesterday’s lows.

The last-minute attack on 2167.50 was already retraced to open back at yesterday afternoon’s 2164.25 low. That soon gave way to attack this morning’s 2161.25 bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks. But it wasn’t touched.

Not touching  the bias-down signal means it can’t actually  hold and be rejected. No offsetting test of the bias-up signal is required. No-bias did signal, so this is likely the morning range’s lower-end. But there’s no assurance it isn’t also its upper-end.

Back above 2164.75 would start to suggest a bounce is underway. No requirement to test the 2172.50 bias-up signal, except that it lies on the path to fulfilling yesterday’s unfinished business above at 2175.50. End exiting the bias environment under its 2161.25 bias-down signal would more likely trend down.