Post-open Review

Overnight low probed.

The open was greeted by already probing back under yesterday’s late 2185.00 low. Its overnight probe would not be isolated, which would have been bullish. Rather, its retracement would be likely, which could be bearish.

And it has been retraced, piercing its low down to 2180.50. Isolating its retest to the open could have ended the decline from yesterday’s opening surge. Outlasting the open has instead triggered bias-down under 2182.75. Its 2177.00 bias-down target is in-play. Fresh lows just touched 2178.25.

Extending under 2177.00 through a relevant timing window (e.g. entering the noon hour any lower) would start to suggest the topping pattern we’ve been tracking is unfolding. Until then, it’s still possible for the drop from yesterday’s open to be the correction along the way to new highs.

New highs fulfilled. Not yet extended.

The open gapped up into last Monday’s range above its 2187.00 cash session close, and extended higher to touch the 2190.00 bias-up target. A lot of time was spent probing higher to 2191.50, above last Monday’s high as was required.

Printing above 2190.00 at 10:15 officially renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2194.50. Technically, the renewed signal is not optimal, since 2190.00 had been overlapped for so long, while RSIs deteriorated. But the burden of proof is on sellers.

Maintaining the gap up above all prior highs often creates an anchor that prevents launching a durable reversal. Today’s anchor is less reliable since it formed within a prior session’s range. Still, the burden of proof is on sellers, and reversing down under 2188.75 could recover aggressively from 2185.00-2186.00 this morning.

Post-open follow-through is rejected.

The open was greeted by a bounce off of the ~2176.00 overnight low’s retest. But the 2178.00 open reacted down immediately to fresh lows testing 2173.75 support.

Support held. Not without multiple attempts to break lower. And not without the opening 15 minutes still testing Friday afternoon’s ~2176.00 low.

Extending down wasn’t likely. Having gapped down to Friday afternoon’s low, extending down would have formed a “session-long decline.” This setup isn’t often credible when it overlaps a weekend. Also, there’s a confirmed bullish WedEX already in-play. While it doesn’t influence the open, it should selfishly control price action beyond it.

Now another bullish condition is triggered. Having held a test of the 2176.00 bias-down signal through the bias timing window, an offsetting test of the 2185.00 bias-up signal is in-play. That’s effectively a retest of the overnight high, and of the recent range’s upper-end.

And it’s on the way to retesting last Monday’s new highs. Which continues to be the likely resolution, especially so long as this afternoon doesn’t retrace much of this morning’s recovery.

Sellers already neutralized AND rejected.

Opening just under yesterday afternoon’s 2180.25 low could have recovered it to avoid forming a “session-long decline” setup. Not that the setup was very credible, rejecting only a shallow bounce. But avoiding it would have sent a bullish statement.

Anyway, it wasn’t rejected. Post-open action immediately resumed last night’s plunge. But…

Extending to fresh lows came within 3 ticks of the 2172.00 bias-down target. That’s close enough to neutralize it from becoming “unfinished business below,” an otherwise irrelevant observation this morning. But…

Bias-down was invalidated. Despite triggering it at 10:15, and not invoking a grace period, recovering it through 10:30 has invalidated it. It’s too late to put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal — this is not a synthetic “no-bias,” which needed to trigger by 10:15. But…

It’s bullish. Follow-through has tested fresh post-open highs up to 2181.50. Potentially very bullish. Today’s other influences — such as the bullish WedEX — could be that much more productive. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment back under its 2177.00 bias-down signal would be bearish.

I pointed out during this morning’s pre-open Tour that several setups were contradicting each other. Yet, rather than paralyze price action, this would increase volatility. The market doesn’t try to disappoint the most participants at any given time. It tries ultimately to satisfy everyone. This is how it keeps their loyalty.

Dry cleaners morning? Or, waiting for a shoe to drop.

Opening at 2179.00 surged to 2181.75. Its reaction down touched 2177.50 and bounced back up to 2181.75. A shallower dip recovered again to 2181.75.

That’s flat-to-higher from yesterday’s close. But it’s certainly not a gap up, so rallying this morning is unlikely.

Trying to rally is likely to fail.

Now this morning’s 2182.50 bias-up signal is being touched. This being a no-bias environment, probing any higher would likely fail. Backing-and-filling this morning was likely, anyway. It’s not required, but a pullback remains likelier than trending.