Post-open Review

Opening plunge satisfying objectives.

Unfinished business left outstanding yesterday at 2174.25 was neutralized overnight. Testing it intraday would have been likely to include 2172.00. Avoiding its test required isolating the overnight lows by recovering through the open.

Which the open did not do. Greeting the open at yesterday’s 2175.25 cash session close was like opening the floodgates.

Fresh lows quickly pierced 2174.25. Knowing that its test would include 2172.00 helped to anticipate breaking under an inflection point’s 3-minute low to confirm new sponsorship arriving. Extending under 2172.00 through 9:45 helped to anticipate triggering the 2174.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. And now triggering bias-down at 10:15 makes its 2168.00 bias-down target likely to be tested.

Actually, already testing 2168.00 to within 3 ticks has satisfied it. It’s still an attraction, especially until a bounce limit is violated. But it won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding. It’s too late for a break under 2168.00 to renew the bias-down signal. But this is still a bias-down environment, and lower lows could test 2166.00 and 2160.00.

Currently, no buy setup is nearby, and 2173.50 must be recovered to begin signaling momentum reversing up. Having expended so much selling pressure so quickly and satisfying a couple of targets, it might start proving difficult to extend deeper with FOMC Minutes just ahead.

Gap down triggers bias-down.

Opening at this morning’s 2181.25 bias-down signal immediately slid to 2177.00. An inflection point under 2179.00 was triggered along the way. But it wasn’t exceeded deeper than its first 3 minutes before reacting up to retest 2181.25 as resistance.

2181.25 was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, but ultimately triggered late bias-down. The 2179.00 inflection point was tested and retested, not yet to new lows but attacking them.

The 2174.25 bias-down target is in-play. Last Wednesday’s gap back down to 2172.00 is probably in-play too, as gaps tend to be filled in pairs. Without printing a fresh post-open low, recovering 2182.50 as the bias environment lapses would invalidate the late bias-down.

Gap up extends, already meets target.

The 2184.75 opening print was not above prior intraday highs. Maintaining it through the open does not create an anchor that would enable recovery, even if only to retest the open. Remember that.

Meanwhile, the gap up did exceed 2185.50 through 9:45. That made the 2184.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Which it did. A test of the 2189.50 bias-up target is in-play. Oh, wait, it’s already met.

Reversing down would now leave no unfinished business above. That includes the open’s gap, which was not above all prior highs. I’ve been sharing the recent observation upside objectives are being fulfilled more and more quickly, What had taken weeks began taking days, and then timing windows. Today’s is a recent record.

Durable rallies “climb a wall of worry” thanks to strong-handed sponsorship. Weak-handed sponsorship aren’t so reliable. Like junkies, they require faster and faster gratification to keep them coming back.

2189.50 is still being overlapped, so not yet exceeded. The next higher attraction would be 2191.50. Back under 2186.75 would suggest upside momentum is lapsing. Back under 2184.50 would signal the trend reversing down.

Gap down not extending. Not ,yet.

The pre-open PPI reaction gapped down to the same 2178.00-2179.00 open of the prior two sessions. They had found sponsorship through the morning. Not today. The first minute blipped-down to 2176.75 and then bounced back up.

Actually, “bounced back up” exaggerates things. Price has firmed choppily back up to 2181.00, still overlapping the open. So, the gap down may not have extended deeper, but it also isn’t being rejected.

Choppiness aside, the pattern should creep higher to 2183.00. That would overlap yesterday’s cash session close by several ticks. The pattern’s next leg should be much cleaner trending — if not reversing to resume and extend the gap down as is likelier, then potentially drifting higher into the close.

Post-open dip is fully reversed.

Yesterday’s buyers didn’t gain traction. So, the only credible morning rally above yesterday’s highs must begin by the open maintaining a gap up above yesterday’s highs.

Which today’s open did. The 2179.00 overnight high was maintained through the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility. Maintained, not extended.

That’s an anchor, not momentum. It doesn’t prevent a detour from extending the gap. It certainly didn’t prevent this morning’s detour back down to 2175.00. The 2176.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and recovered in time to trigger late bias-up.

There’s no bullish reason to delay probing new highs. Not when combining that last bit of “ineffectual pessimism” with anchoring the open’s gap up — all within a couple of points of intraday highs. In fact, now 2182.00 is being tested.

The 2182.25 bias-up target is essentially met. Unfinished business above at 2185.50 remains outstanding. A very magnetic range below lies in wait.