Post-open Review

Overnight bounce is retraced.

Testing the 2181.25 bias-up signal overnight was attacked twice more before the open. The restrained optimism was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But it was only pre-open, so it hadn’t yet been triggered.

And it wasn’t. The open immediately began dipping. The gap back down to yesterday’s 2177.50 close was filled, and then probed almost 2 points lower momentarily Neither bias signal was touched post-open, making this a no-bias environment.

Holding the pullback to yesterday’s closing gap would make the post-open pessimism ineffectual. Also potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. It’s similarly interesting that abruptly reversing a rally effort was influential pre-open. that’s perhaps a little too pessimistic, considering there is still unfinished business above at 2185.50.

No offsetting test of the bias-down signal is required. If tested anyway, it should define the range’s lower-end. Exiting this morning’s bias environment in positive territory would suggest this morning’s pessimistic effort had failed. An afternoon could rally begin.

An opportunity to neutralize the upside.

The open blipped-down to touch 2176.00, and then bounced back to and through the 2179.00 overnight high. Another blip-down was recovered to higher highs. The 2180.00 bias-up signal triggered late after extending to 2182.50.

That’s new intraday highs. That’s also 2 ticks short of Sunday night’s 2183.00 new Globex trend extreme that requires intraday retest. And its 3 points short of this morning’s 2185.50 bias-up target. Meanwhile, overbought RSIs at 2182.50 would require its retest if a sudden downdraft were to develop.

The lateness of actually probing above the 2180.00 bias-up signal undermines its sponsorship. It’s not weak-handed, but it’s necessarily.very strong-handed either. A steady, relentless extended rally isn’t likely.

Friday’s new trend high close still requires an eventual higher close. There’s no assurance of that being today. There’s also nothing preventing it. But today’s session will need to become choppy — reversing back down temporarily and then recovering before the close — for a fresh high close not to have broken sharply higher.

Post-open action at fresh highs fails to hold.

The 2183.00 overnight high is a new Globex trend extreme that requires being tested intraday. Often that is the same day, but not necessarily. That remains possible today because the open’s gap up above Friday’s prior highs to 2180.25-2181.25 was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

That wasn’t maintained long enough to trigger the 2180.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Instead, a dip on its way down to 2175.00 triggered a sell signal under 2176.25. An offsetting test of the 2171.00 bias-down signal is in-play.

This interim detour down can extend even deeper, and last even longer. But it is still only temporary.Meanwhile, back above 2178.50 would start to signal the overnight high’s retest is in-play. It’s being attacked now, and should be rejected immediately if it is going to be rejected at all.

Perfect storm extends pre-open surge.

The Employment Situation report reaction had essentially spiked up 6 points to 2168.00 resistance. So long as that wasn’t rejected, just standing still would mean the market had discounted a growing likelihood for a rate hike.And that comfort level would become uncomfortable, as the market would scramble to buy.

Greeting the open at 2168.00 touched a pullback limit at 2166.50 before quickly recovering to fresh highs. The market is a quick learner. The quick recovery became a substantial recovery, testing the 2171.25 bias-up target and then probing it to test 2175.50.

So, now what? Does the market continue its realization that a rate hike is priced in, and continue rallying into the afternoon? Probably something like that. NEVER underestimate the influence of weekend illiquidity getting exponentially closer with each passing minute. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend.

Sunday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” at 2177.75 requires an intraday retest. Being in its orbit, probing above all prior intraday highs, its test is likely before any durable reaction down.

Retesting Sunday night’s high before entering the afternoon bias environment would be vulnerable to reversing down into the weekend. Counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to generate before so near the weekend. It’s also difficult to stop once generated, if the trend’s objective is already met.

Opening gains fail to hold.

The 2158.75 opening print as above yesterday’s high. That’s a gap up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility extended higher to 2162.00, trending in a series of higher highs and higher lows. That’s a gap up, maintained.

Yesterday’s rally couldn’t extend this morning otherwise, not since its buyers had failed to gain traction. So, maintaining a gap up allows the rally to resume this morning. But it’s not required.

The open’s 2161.00 inflection point was probed no higher than its first 4 minutes before reversing more than 2 points back down. That wasn’t required to extend down, but it did. And the 2159.00 bias-up signal failed to trigger.

An offsetting test of the 2150.50 bias-down signal is now in-play. Its test would likely give way to also retest Tuesday’s 2141.50 low. The post-open dip has tested 2154.00.

That 10:15 signal could have been invalidated by recovering the 2159.00 bias-up signal at 10:30. It wasn’t. Invalidation is still possible at 11:30, but then by recovering the bias-up signal’s test up to 2162.00.

Meanwhile,a bounce is now retesting the 2159.00 bias-up signal. Back under 2157.50 would signal the next downleg underway. Any higher could lead to invalidating the downside attractions.