Post-open Review

Overnight dip recovered.

2150.50-2151.25 defined the open. And the open defined the peak of the bounce off the 2145.25 overnight low. Despite immediately reversing back down toward the overnight low, only 2147.00 support was touched, 1 tick above this morning’s 2146.75 bias-down signal.

2147.00-2148.00 is relevant support. It was the room for noise under 2153.50‘s retest. That support is now chipped away in case it’s retested today.

Meanwhile, au contraire.

2147.00‘s reaction recovered to fresh post-open highs at 2153.00. That eked higher to attack the 2155.50 bias-up signal, which was touched only now. Bias-up didn’t trigger, and can’t. But no-bias trending can still probe it up to 2158.00 while still being likely to reverse down.

Back under 2151.25 would signal that reversal down underway already. Other than potential support at 2149.25, any lower should extend down aggressively to retest yesterday’s 2141.25 low

Monday morning’s sentiment shift setup still playing-out.

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A Symmetrical Triangle had formed pre-open. The open was greeted at its 2162.00 upper-end. A 2-point blip-down was reversed immediately into a 2-point blip-up to 2164.00. That last blip was the Triangle’s 61.8% extension. And it held.

Even faster than the blip-up, fresh lows were being probed down to 2158.00  A bigger break lower has extended down to 2150.00.

The 2154.25 bias-down target had been probed, but was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. That doesn’t change this being a bias-down environment. And the next lower objective would be 2147.00-2148.00.

Oversold RSIs at 2150.00 require its retest. They are higher oversolds, so an interim bounce retesting the 2154.25 bias-down target is possible. This morning’s trend meanwhile remains down.

Yesterday’s open had isolated the overnight probe of fresh highs, signaling a sentiment shift. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at the 2177.75 overnight high. Resolving downside attractions so quickly does make it difficult to attract substantial sponsorship. I’m not convinced this downturn is durable.

“New Globex trend extreme” isolated.

One more round of chaRTroom link roulette…
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The overnight high was complex enough to be considered a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday. Often the same day, but not necessarily. Especially not if the overnight highs are isolated from intraday action.

These were.

The open was deep enough to consider it testing Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close. That opened the door to isolating the overnight action. Soon its shallow bounce had resolved down sharply to 2162.25. Its recovery up to 2169.25 avoided triggering either bias signal.

That could extend back up to 2171.25-2172.00, remaining within Friday’s range, still isolating the overnight action. Meanwhile, back under 2166.00 would signal the post-open bounce had ended.

Exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2162.25 low would help confirm the overnight high’s isolation. The afternoon price action of that setup should behave very bearishly, targeting at least a probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low..

Post-open drop is recovered.

The opening bar touched the 2160.75 bias-down signal and snapped up to 2164.75. Consolidating there eventually dipped back under the open, and back down to the 2157.50 overnight low.

The dip was recovered to 2161.50, for long enough to invoke the grace period at 10:15. At 10:30, the 2160.75 bias-down signal was being attacked to within 1 tick. But still under it.

A single tick makes it not optimal, but still a late bias-down. Not being optimal, the signal is immediately vulnerable. But only immediately — not for long, and for only one rejection attempt.

In fact, a buy signal quickly triggered back above 2161.50. Back under the 2160.75 bias-down signal at any time would have rejected the recovery attempt, and confirmed the bias-down. But its validity was confirmed by trending up relentlessly to a fresh post-open high above 2165.00.

I’m treating this as a noN-bias environment. And now 2168.00 is being tested. Back under 2164.75 would target at least an attack on the 2160.75 bias-down signal.

Treating this morning as a noN-bias environment allows trending up instead, and even probing new highs. But nothing changes that yesterday afternoon’s rally gained no traction. So, probing new highs this morning would be doomed to failure this afternoon.

Post-open chop is back in the quicksand.

The 2159.00 open surged to touch 2161.50. Reacting back under 2159.00 signaled momentum reversing down. The reaction quickly extended to within 3 ticks of the 2153.25 bias-down signal.

And bounced. Back above 2158.00 signaled momentum reversing up. A retest of 2161.50 up to 2162.75  Its 2161.50 pullback limit was violated, and back under 2159.50 signaled momentum reversing down, again.

The initial 2154.00 low is being pierced. There’s no assurance of the 2153.25 bias-down signal holding if broken after the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. But probing under it before then should not be durable.

Back above 2156.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. But it had better be very productive very quickly if valid.