Post-open Review

Post-open dip recovers, and reverses.

The reaction down from 2167.25 greeted the open at 2163.75. Post-open action immediately plunged to test the 2160.75 bias-up signal as support, down to 2158.50.

That was the first half of the first 15 minutes of volatility.

1-minute RSI made a higher oversold while 3-minute RSI had been persistently oversold. But selling was done. An inverted Head & Shoulders formed, which then broke higher out of the first half-hour.

Bias-up triggered easily at 10:15. The 2165.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 2-3 ticks just minutes later. Reacting down into the EIA report has now recovered to probe above the overnight high. Last week’s 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme” is being attacked to within 1 tick.

Pessimism reflected by the post-open dip is largely rewarded by the reversal well above its origin. But only attacking last week’s high — which requires actually being touched intraday, and probably probed — is new pessimism that has yet to be rewarded.

Extending higher could still reach 2175.00 before reversing down would be credible.

Open’s dip creates another upside objective.

Tuesday’s open was essentially 2154.50, which was also Friday’s close and Monday’s open. Seems to be a relevant area. Surging up to 2158.00 didn’t lessen its attraction, as a reaction down touched 2153.25.

Another bounce attacked 2158.00 in time to avoid triggering the 2154.00 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of the 2163.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Despite the upside attraction, a rally isn’t gaining traction. That might be because the 2153.25 low wasn’t fully formed, so recovering will be difficult until at least touching 2153.00.

Fresh highs above 2158.00 would be credible for leaving behind the 2153.25 lows. Otherwise, backing-and-filling this morning remains likely, regardless of the new objective created above.

Post-open dip recovers well into positive territory.

The opening bar touched Friday afternoon’s 2157.25 high. Reversing down tested the preliminary 2153.00 indication. Its break through 9:45 would have made the 2158.00 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger.

It held.

That was the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The balance of the opening hour has trended up relentlessly to 2160.00. Bias-up triggered late, but its 2163.75 bias-up target is nonetheless in-play. And the bullish WedEX remains intact.

A spike up to 2161.50 tested 2160.00, which was the preliminary upside indicator. Although not touched by 9:45 like 2153.00 below, it’s still resistance. Preferably, its reaction down will hold 2158.75 before resuming the rally.

Pre-open surge collapses.

Wednesday’s open did the same thing. A surge probed above the prior session’s highs, but not until very near to the open. That’s the stuff of weak-handed sponsorship.

The prior session’s sponsorship had gained no traction, so extending the rally required maintaining a gap up. The late, weak-handed attempt didn’t just fail that condition, but it also created a new one by stretching the rubber band.

Wednesday’s opening rubber band snapped back down. This morning’s has reversed down 8 points so far from 2164.75 to 2156.75. And having held a test of the 2161.50 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2152.00 bias-down signal is in-play.

It might be left outstanding, as was yesterday afternoon’s lower objective, met overnight. RSIs aren’t very enthusiastic about it, barely attacking oversold territory and not at all probing into it. This makes even the most bearish scenario vulnerable to choppy swings and corrective bounces.

Also, this being expiration, its unique inputs can skew price action. But 2152.00 must be tested unless the bias environment is exited back above the open’s 2164.25 high.

Post-open dip recovers, but doesn’t reverse.

A gap up was maintained, but not extended. The rally’s trend remains entrenched, but in need of refueling.

Opening at 2160.25 immediately extended down to 2155.50 throughout the entire first 15 minutes of volatility. That’s a retest of the 2156.00 area where the overnight rally had greeted Europe’s opens. And its where the overnight reaction down from 2168.00 had bottomed.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the retest of 2156.00 enabled a bounce. Despite probably being only obligatory, the bounce reached fresh post-open highs up to 2163.00.

2155.50 doesn’t provide much refueling for the rally. Extending higher to retest the overnight high up to 2169.00 would likely reverse down more substantially. But a deeper pullback could produce a more durable upleg from 2153.00

2153.00 is in-play so long as 2160.00 isn’t recovered. Back above 2162.00 would start to signal the high’s retest underway already.