Post-open Review

Late surge’s gap up crumbles through the open.

Yesterday’s 2149.25 high was touched so near the open that its sponsorship was a little suspicious. A surge up to 2152.25 probed it, but in a singular non-complex leg. Still, the pattern of gaps up marginalizing sellers got a benefit of the doubt.

But that pattern was never exploited post-open. The 2150.75 opening print quickly slid back into negative territory at 2143.50. Bias-up failed so no-bias triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2141.00 bias-down signal.

Choppy ranging since then has touched 2148.00. Back under 2145.25 would signal the 2141.00 bias-down signal’s test is underway. That would be invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2151.75 high before printing a fresh post-10:15 low.

Rally’s next objective met, holding.

The open was greeted by a a 4-hour channel ranging around this morning’s 2141.00 bias-up target. Immediately breaking higher extended to 2145.25, neutralizing the rally’s next higher objective at 2143.00.

The entire opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up 4-1/2 points. Price action since then has only trended down 7 points, and just attacked 2138.00.

While the reversal down has dipped deeper and lasted longer, it can’t change history. And trending higher after gapping up created an anchor to prevent a reversal down from gaining traction.

That doesn’t prevent attempting to trend down. The bias-up target held through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment. Dipping during it has room down to the 2135.00 bias-up signal without even threatening to reverse the trend down.

Back above 2142.50 would start to signal the dip had ended and the rally was resuming. Meanwhile, further backing-and-filling through the morning or later remains possible.

Gap up maintained long enough to matter.

Like Friday’s gap up, the opening 15 minutes of volatility didn’t reject it. Also like Friday, the open had trended up through 9:45, printing higher lows and higher highs to within 2 ticks of the 2133.00 overnight high.

Buyers have traction. But that doesn’t prevent reactions down.

Suddenly, a spike down to 2125.25 is making clear that upside momentum wasn’t helped during the 10:15 bias timing window. Choppy ranging did trigger bias-up, but didn’t renew it above the 2129.75 bias-up target.

A bias-up environment has room to range down to its 2124.00 bias-up signal as support. Backing-and-filling this morning is likely so long as the 2129.75 bias-up target isn’t recovered. Above it would target 2135.25-2136.00.

Yesterday’s open was strong-handed buyers, too.

At least two elements through this morning’s opening 15 minutes of volatility indicated the gap up would hold and the rally would extend. Sellers weren’t influencing price significantly, and the period formed uptrending.

Just maintaining an opening gap through the open tends to extend further. And further. And further.

Any cause for concern would be due linked to yesterday’s reaction. Tracking the bullish template didn’t prevent reversing back down through the morning and afternoon bias environments. Always suggesting weak-handed sponsorship, and holding the maximum 2082.00 pullback limit – it wasn’t destructive, but it was productive.

RSIs were slow to get overbought, and the next higher objective at 2115.00 has been attacked to within 5 ticks. The pullback limit was probed for 3 minutes down to 2110.25, and that didn’t hold. A shallower pullback than yesterday is still possible, and could still be relatively deep — like down to 2104.00.

Keeping sellers from retaking control should still extend higher today, and not just range sideways.

Modest gap up surges to fresh highs.

Gapping up to and/or through yesterday’s high was the minimum requirement to assume new sponsorship had arrived to extend yesterday’s rally. The 2094.25 opening print qualified.

Quickly exceeding the 2098.00 overnight high was less a requirement and more confirmation. Preferably 2099.50 would have been recovered by then, too. It was being tested, on the way up to 2102.00.

Overbought RSIs require the high’s retest. The 2103.25 bias-up target is in-play. A pullback to 2098.00 has reacted up to 2101.50 and can extend higher so long as 2098.75 continues holding as support.

A high-interest congressional hearing underway currently may be siphoning energy from the market and inhibiting trending. Trending in that situation is more difficult. By the same token, a knee-jerk reaction to other news would be likelier to retrace.

A deeper detour down to 2095.50 can’t be discounted. The 2097.00 bias-up signal should define the range’s lower-end if tested — probing under it should be brief and quickly reversed up.