Post-open Review

Another double-pumped recovery fails.

Last night’s dip under yesterday’s 2072.25 lows had recovered back up to fresh overnight highs. But that wasn’t maintained, and overnight lows were probed.

A bounce greeted the open, and it quickly touched the 2076.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Quickly reacting down to 2068.00 was recovered back up to fresh post-open highs. But that wasn’t maintained, and overnight lows have been probed even lower.

Sellers and buyers both are getting a lot of second chances. And those second chances are being exploited.

Buyers now have a second chance to retake control. The 2071.00 bias-down target wasn’t broken through 10:15, so the bias-down signal is not renewed. The target had been met already, and it was met later anyway, while RSIs avoided becoming oversold. The nearest renewed bias-down target has been met, too.

None of which changes that this is a bias-down environment. But renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 would have essentially put into play 2055.00-2056.50. That was avoided. It can be exploited by exiting the bias environment in rally mode recovering 2076.00.

Otherwise, 2055.00-2056.50 is the next lower objective, and the next opportunity to launch a rally back through last week’s highs.

Overnight slide extends to fresh lows.

The open was greeted at the 2085.00 bias-down target. Blipping-up to 2086.50 created a slingshot effect that plunged to fresh lows at 2077.50. And that is now probing lower to 2076.75.

2076.75 is within 3 ticks of what is essentially the 2076.00 renewed bias-down target. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs diverged positively at the low.

Back above 2080.75 would signal at least a corrective bounce up to the 2085.00 bias-down target. Meanwhile, the trend may extend next down to 2071.00.

Single-minded relentless rallying has come full circle.

A post-open overt rally effort was all but assured when the overnight dip had recovered back up to yesterday’s 2088.75 highs. This was all the more likely when their shallow pre-open probe hovered narrowly around 2090.00 — that restrained optimism, or pessimism, was bullish from a contrarian perspective.

And that bullishness was soon realized.

The open surged to consolidate above the 2092.50 bias-up signal at 2094.00. Resolving up has extended to the 2098.25 bias-up target. The bias-up signal wasn’t renewed, but fresh highs are being probed anyway to attack 2101.00.

Last Thursday’s 2089.75 lower prior highs have been probed through a relevant timing window — entering the bias environment. The recovery’s reward is to probe Thursday’s 2019.50 prior high. Creating this upside objective has entrenched the rally, which allows it to safely refuel by dipping.

No other refueling opportunity this week has been exploited. Today’s “Friday Factors” introduce vulnerabilities, but don’t require a different resolution to the recent pattern. And those vulnerabilities didn’t prevent already probing through last Thursday’s mid-day congestion around 2098.25.

One of those Friday Factors is the tendency for afternoon ranging or backing-and-filling. Early trending can be exacerbated by afternoon orders being shifted forward. I doubt there’s much appetite left for getting long up here, but there still may have been a lot of short-covering. Regardless, we’ll soon see whether yet another relentless rally can still be so single-minded.

Choppy post-open action.

Congestion around the 2065.00 bias-up signal gradually resolved down to 2061.00. Its reaction up overlapped the 2065.00 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Its reaction down toward 2061.00 triggered late no-bias.

The bias-up signal was touched again 1 minute later. Just 1 minute earlier would have triggered noN-bias. Buy signals would be valid. Retesting overnight highs up to 2077.00 would be likely.

The market is ignoring the 1 minute difference. NoN-bias wouldn’t have put into play the 2071.00 bias-up target. It is being probed now by 1 point.

No-bias would require retesting the 2065.00 bias-up signal. That would make it difficult to trend much higher this morning.

US market follows overseas lead higher.

Being greeted similarly to yesterday, this morning’s open was likely to resolve differently. Whichever the direction, it should include immediate post-open aggression.

The open spiked up several points to fresh highs testing 2047.00. Its 5-point reaction down to 2042.25 was probably due to news that a JFK terminal was being evacuated.

Absorbing the news quickly recovered to the opening high. And that eventually broke higher to now test 2052.50. Overbought RSIs make any pullback likely to recover.

The next higher objective above 2050.50 is 2055.50, with a potential obstacle at 2053.50. This morning’s bias environment’s higher and higher highs already differs from yesterday, which only trended back down.

Sellers aren’t necessarily marginalized this afternoon, which is actually a little likelier to range sideways than to retrace — and least likely to extend the rally. Pullbacks meanwhile have room down to 2046.50 or 2044.50 before suggesting momentum is already reversing down.