Post-open Review
Post-open Review… Second wind.
Opening surge extends overnight rally.
Single-minded relentless overnight trending is always vulnerable to reversing at the open. Indeed, it often does. But rejection should be obvious before getting halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Still hanging on then, or already extending, makes another leg likely.
The pre-open dip greeted the cash session at 2010.00, fewer than 2 points under the high. Hovering there lasted almost half the opening 15 minutes before finally resolving. And having avoided rejection for that long, extending the prevailing trend became likely.
Fresh highs were likely to pierce 2018.00. It was tested and retested, but 2018.25 was touched only by an errant tick. Now a reaction down has is attacking the 2010.00 open.
Can the pullback extend to probe fresh post-open lows through the bias environment exit? That would undermine the post-open attempt to extend the overnight trending. Reversing the entire rally today would still be possible, but not required.
Otherwise, exiting the bias environment in rally mode could entrench the rally through tomorrow morning.
Post-open Review… Knife catch. Not quite blindfolded.
Straight down since the open, but targets met.
Coming within 1 point of Thursday night’s 1999.00 limit-down had bounced to greet the open at 2011.00. Price action trended almost straight down from there.
The requirement to retest 1999.00 was fulfilled. Its influence was modest, triggering a bounce that attacked 2004.00.
That didn’t last, and another downleg fell to 1991.25. Retesting 1999.00 down to 1993.50 was fulfilled. The question is whether that’s enough for another bounce.
Another bounce would be relatively substantial at this stage. The 1993.50 target was met just after violating a bounce limit. And before forming a new distribution pattern, let alone triggering it. This pessimism often proves optimistic — which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Only 1-minute RSI is avoiding oversold territory, as the drop extends down to 1988.50. There is still room for noise down to 1980.00. But back above 1999.00 at this stage could trigger a much larger rally than most would have expected today.
Post-open Review… It’s not always the best offense.
Post-open rally refuels sellers.
Rallying through the open became likely early enough to identify a 2038.25 buy signal. Its 2055.50 objective was met during the first half-hour. And then it was exceeded to attack 2065.00.
Recovering 2055.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have signaled the overnight selling pressures were absorbed. Instead, this morning’s bounce is more likely refueling sellers for a more substantial downleg. Overnight lows should be retested down to 1993.50.
The question is when. Today is possible, but the morning bias environment should begin lapsing in decline. Late-afternoon is possible if the open’s rally has only hovered through the afternoon bias environment. Otherwise, trending up further this afternoon could delay fresh lows until next week.
Post-open Review… Held up.
Reacting down into and out of the open.
The overnight pullback from 2102.00 greeted the open at 2094.05 before extending deeper to 2089.00. That tested the 2089.75 bias-up target, which held, renewing the bias-up signal. The 2095.00 renewed bias-up target has been met. The next higher attraction would be 2099.50.
Potential for deeper backing-and0-filling down to 2088.00 may have been avoided. The reaction up has twice tested 2095.50. It’s similar to yesterday morning’s retest of its 2091.25 high — bad news blind-sided the attempt to extend the upleg.
This morning’s news is worse, a shooting in a Viernheim, Germany cinema complex. But its effect is similar, triggering a sudden 5-1/2 point plunge.
Meanwhile, the open avoided touching higher prior lows at 2097.00-2101.00. Therefore, its resistance is not rejected, despite having held an overnight test. Exiting the bias environment above 2095.50 would be likely to resume the rally. Under 2088.00 would start signaling a deeper detour.
Post-open Review… Better late than never.
Gap up trying to probe higher, late.
Gapping up a little to 2082.50 was extended to attack and to probe 2085.00, stopping pessimistically short of touching the 2085.75 pre-open high. Seeing a pattern?
The 2085.75 pre-open high had stopped pessimistically short of touching yesterday afternoon’s high. 
Which had stopped pessimistically short of touching its pre-open high. Each potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. And all suggesting the eventual credible break would almost literally explode higher.
The negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2081.75 on Yellen’s remarks was even shallower than yesterday. The 2086.00 bias-up signal was being attacked to within 1 tick through 10:15, so no-bias triggered. It was being overlapped at 10:30, so no-bias wasn’t invalidated.
Nevertheless, 2086.00 is being probed up to 2090.00. And the probe above 2086.00 almost literally exploded higher, which fulfills the characteristic for a credible breakout from this pattern. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought, so any pullback will need to recover.
The move was likely, although it could have been delayed until this afternoon. It was delayed just long enough to be “no-bias trending” that will require being retraced eventually down to 2086.00. That might be this morning, or it may come after testing Monday morning’s 2092.50 high by 2 points.