Post-open Review
Post-open Review… Early to rise gets worms.
Yet another post-open surge gets slammed.
Only one template at this stage of the pattern would have aligned with rallying through the morning. 
That required trending up without hesitation from the open.
Meanwhile, a bearish template also would have aligned with trending up at the open. It was simply a version of the path to lower lows being slower. Their difference would be in maintaining the early gain, or not.
Not.
The 2065.25 opening print spent the entire first 15 minutes of volatility trending up relentlessly to 2072.75. That retested overnight highs. Price action since then has trended back down.
The 2068.25 bias-down signal triggered, and its 2062.50 bias-down target has been met already, on the way down to 2058.75.
Another bullish template would have isolated the probe of negative territory to the overnight window by opening in positive territory before surging. That template is reset now that overnight lows have been retested intraday, and exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2072.75 high would be bullish. Otherwise, the trend remains down.
Post-open Review… On the other foot.
Friday’s impatient sellers had it coming.
The bullish scenario didn’t just require probing under Friday’s low. That was done overnight, touching this morning’s 2077.00 bias-down target. It still needed to be experienced intraday.
Even then, the open’s blip-down had reacted up so quickly that a re-retest was needed. And quickly, since it needed to be isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
It was.
Soon the 2082.00 bias-down signal was being probed on the way to filling the gap(s) back to Friday’s close at 2086.00-2087.25. Reacting down held above the 2082.00 bias-down signal long enough to avoid triggering it.
And that has since extended higher.
An offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Fresh post-open highs and positive territory are being probed to 2089.25 — after 10:15, which makes 2093.00 likely to become “unfinished business above” if not met this morning.
Having tested the 2077.00 bias-down target so near the open, an offsetting test of the 2098.75 bias-up target wouldn’t be surprising. It wouldn’t be in-play officially. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 2082.00 would delay any unfinished business above for a new session low.
Post-open Review… Reinforcements have arrived.
Opening uptick meets post-open slide.
Intraday action hasn’t been very remarkable, at least not in terms of point-range. But the structure is very revealing.
Gapping down immediately bounced as was suspected. And as expected, that was only temporary before reversing down to fresh lows. Although not yet put into play by the bias timing window, the 2086.50 renewed bias-down target was touched.
RSIs diverged positively on the retest of 2086.50, and a subsequent retest has launched a bigger bounce to new intraday highs testing the 2093.25 bias-down target as resistance.
Hope springs eternal, that’s how sellers are refueled in a persistent downtrend.
This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal should persist through the noon hour. Bouncing much during a bias-down environment could find buying pressure depleted just when it would have had more impact, entering the afternoon.
Anxiousness into two days of illiquidity probably exacerbated the open’s selling pressures. Holding a test of the 2086.50 renewed bias-down target indicated that selling pressure was satisfied. A big bounce will bring those two days come back into focus.
Post-open Review… Warning shot.
Weak open holds support. For now.
Yesterday morning’s no-bias environment had left outstanding the objective to test its bias-down signal. This morning’s 2098.00 low just neutralized it.
That also fulfills this morning’s bias-down target to within 1 tick. It was put into play by holding the 2103.00 bias-down signal through 10:15.
Now bouncing 4 points to 2102.25 confirms the area’s influence. But it doesn’t reverse momentum up. Still being a bias-down environment, the morning’s upper-end should still be defined by the 2103.00 bias-down signal – even if its probe were to attack 2106.00.
And bouncing during a bias-down environment is likely sponsored by weak hands, refueling sellers. Back under 2100.00 would signal the decline’s momentum remains intact, and targeting lower lows down to the 2094.00 area.
Post-open Review… Thin air up here.
Open’s surge finds more resistance at prior high.
The open’s surge all but confirmed that the two hours of pre-open consolidation were designed to conserve energy for trying to resume the rally. The minimum objective of retesting yesterday’s 2118.00 high was fulfilled, to within 1 tick of its room for noise up to 2119.00.
Then a sharp reaction down to 2112.00 all but confirmed the high’s retest was intended to seal a top. The 2114.75 bias-up signal’s test ultimately held after invoking the grace period, but it’s being retested now. Back above 2116.25 could probe fresh highs, even testing this morning’s 2120.25 bias-up target.
Resuming the rally today is no more likely than it was yesterday — for the same reasons, and more. Meanwhile, attempts to extend the rally are no less likely either, as topping forms. Wreversal Wednesday’s template only requires that the afternoon makes obvious its rejection of the morning’s trending.
Closing today above 2119.00 would be credible for extending the rally, regardless of the topping potential. And probably steeply, needing to become detached quickly from that topping potential.