Post-open Review

One test held didn’t prevent later breaking the bias-down signal.

The open blipped down to test the 2081.75 bias-down signal by 1 point. Its reaction up recovered to and through yesterday’s late 2087.50 highs, up to the 2089.00 overnight high.

But no higher. And that has all been reversed. The 2081.75 bias-down signal has been probed down to its 2075.50 bias-down TARGET.

This came after signaling no-bias at 10:15. And it came after holding the bias-down signal’s retest at 10:30. So, this is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced back to the 2081.75 bias-down signal. Even higher, to fulfill the offsetting test of the 2092.00 bias-up signal.

All of that can be rendered moot. Since the 10:15 high was never bettered, exiting the bias environment under the 2075.50 bias-down would not leave any “unfinished business above.”And room to 2067.00 below.

Currently, oversold RSIs at the low are impeding a recovery, while a continuation pattern (Flag) has formed. Currently, there’s still time to neutralize the downside by 11:30 to reinstate the upside. But currently there’s no upside momentum.

Post-open slide flushes out sellers.

Greeting the open at yesterday’s 2096.25 cash session close was able only to touch 2098.50 resistance. Its reaction down triggered sell signals that extended to 2089.25. Another tick would have neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25.

Meanwhile, the 2093.00 bias-down signal triggered late bias-down. Officially. But that was for the sake of a singe tick, one minute too late. So, don’t dismiss recovery potential — it may be a noN-bias, so trending sponsorship can be strong-handed.

In fact, a 4-point bounce off of 2089.50 was retraced right back down to 2089.25, which launched another bounce. This one has extended to 2097.50. So, unless the bias environment were exited back under the 2093.00 bias-down signal, flat-to-higher ranging is likely.

Overnight recovery attracts no new sponsorship.

Last night’s dip from 2095.50 down to 2085.75 had been recovered pre-open up to 2098.00. Its reaction down greeted the open at this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal, and extended down to 2092.50. Two more bounces held 2096.25.

Meanwhile, the bullish scenario’s 2093.75 pullback limit held two tests, too. It’s now being tested for a third time. It will probably break lower, since the bias-up signal is failing to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal.

That may be the bullish scenario. Having failed to gap up and extend higher in this no-traction setup, probing fresh highs this morning would have been doomed to failure. Delaying fresh highs until late-afternoon would escape that restraint. By the same token, probing fresh highs anyway could form a more durable top here.

Post-open dip bounces off its pullback limit.

Any post-open strength intending to extend needed either to play it cool, or else be relentless. Either hesitate before actually testing the 2098.50 overnight high, or else maintain its recovery if probing above it.

An immediate surge that stopped pessimistically short of touching the overnight high would have been bullish — from a contrarian perspective. So, just imagine the bullishness of pessimism that actually sent price down.

Down, without breaking under relevant support. Without breaking support, despite testing it.

In fact, price action only weakened from the 2093.00 opening print. Remember the 2090.50-2091.00 pullback limit I had described the during the pre-market Tour? It was tested and retested. And its test held.

More so, its test reversed up to fresh post-open highs at 2097.75. Bias-up was renewed, next targeting 2097.00 and 2099.50. Still overlapping 2097.00 at 10:15 does warn of another dip before extending higher. But now holding the 2093.75 bias-up target as support would maintain the recovery.

Post-open action wastes little time before surging. And surging.

The bullish WedEX’s influence Friday afternoon was modest. It reversed a probe of fresh lows to recover at fresh afternoon highs. And having been modestly influential Friday afternoon, its influence this morning was likely to be aggressive.

In fact, the 2066.75 opening print reacted down only 6 ticks during the next minute, before reversing up sharply. The 2071.75 bias-up signal was being tested by 9:45. Surging into and out of 10:00 had extended to 2079.00. That has extended to 2081.25.

Regardless of its starting point being a gap down, 14 points in a half-hour is aggressive and bullish. But it’s not yet morning-long, which is still under WedEX’s influence.

Meanwhile, a new challenge has appeared. The open tested the 2067.50 bias-down target and recovered the 2071.75 bias-down signal. Just holding the bias signal’s test through 10:15 would put into play an offsetting test of the other bias signal. Recovering a bias signal and its target, would put into play tests of both of the other bias parameters.

But the consequences for ineffectual pessimism are neutralized already. Testing this morning’s 2078.50 bias-up signal is now the focus. And at 10:15 it was still being overlapped to invoke the grace period.

So, the 2085.75 bias-up target is in-play because the 2078.50 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:30. Its test at least attack is likely anyway, with influence from the bullish WedEX. Only dipping back under 2076.25 would raise any suspicion otherwise.