Post-open Review

All downside objectives met. Now it’s a matter of time.

The 2062.50 opening blip-down reacted up almost immediately to the 2066.25 bias-down signal. A brief hesitation had begun breaking lower ahead of the 9:45 econ report. The decline extended through the first half-hour down to 2053.50.

Testing “lower prior highs” in the 2056.00 area was likely if 2067.00-2069.00 couldn’t hold its test. Trending down substantially deeper is likely if 2056.00 doesn’t hold its test, too.

We might not know that resolution until this afternoon.

So far, a bounce is testing 2063.00. But that’s only bullish if restrained through the morning. The past three sessions became their own worst enemy by their early overly-optimistic rallies. This being a bias-down environment, a bounce should be contained by the 2066.25 bias-down signal if tested.

Meanwhile, a retest of the 2053.50 low is possible. Its oversold RSIs require an eventual retest. This is a renewed bias-down environment, but the renewed bias-down target has essentially been met. Doing that sooner rather than later would allow time to exit the bias environment bouncing.

The bearish scenario hasn’t changed. Two days of illiquidity are fast-approaching, which could start to encourage sellers by failing not only to hold this test of 2056.00 lower prior highs, but also failing to greet the afternoon recovering,

Opening above yesterday’s lows marginalizes sellers.

Despite having dipped overnight down to 2070.25, opening above yesterday’s 2076.25-2077.50 lows could compartmentalize the bearish sentiment. Proof would come from maintaining that much of a recovery, and then also quickly extending it.

The 2080.25 opening print blipped-down 3 points before surging to and through the 2086.25-2087.00 objective I had described during the pre-market Tour. The gap back to yesterday’s 2089.50 cash session close has been filled to within 1 tick.

Only pre-open price action tested the 2076 bias-down target. So, recovering the 2083.75 bias-down signal puts into play an offsetting test of only the 2092.75 bias-up signal. Extending to the 2099.00 bias-up target this morning isn’t likely. Possible, but not likely.

Overbought RSIs at 2091.25 require its retest. Traction gained by yesterday afternoon’s rally suggest the recovery will extend this morning. Only violating a pullback limit at 2088.00 is creating an obstacle.

Actually, the two prior opening patterns are also obstacles to extending higher this morning. Similar to this morning, they also surged post-open, held tests of resistance, and then reversed down substantially. I’ll give the recovery credit so long as the 2083.75 bias-down signal holds as support.

Another post-open surge falls flat.

Today’s bullish scenario required a blip-down to fresh lows. Stretch the rubber band and prove there was no sponsorship for extending down. Reacting up a little would be expected to attract buyers.

The last-minute pre-open dip to 2079.75 was already reversing up into the open. The gap back to yesterday’s 2086.00 cash session close was filled. That generated the same warning as yesterday. And like yesterday, a reaction down could have recovered. Also like yesterday, it didn’t.

The 2081.00 bias-down signal triggered late, and already the 2075.50 bias-down target has been attacked to within 3 ticks. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. Exiting the bias environment back above 2081.00 would suggest that retest will wait.

Meanwhile, this area can be tested as support before becoming bearish. Today’s bullish scenario hasn’t really changed — A rally isn’t really possible until late-afternoon, likelier if greeting the FOMC statement nearer to this morning’s highs.

Post-open rally attacking overnight highs.

Not just last night’s 2091.25 high was attacked. So was Sunday night’s 2091.50 gap up. All within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2091.75 bias-up target, which is a lot of resistance.

Even if we knew with 100% degree of certainty it would be exceeded, nothing prohibits an obligatory reaction down. In fact, a 4-1/2 point dip is attacking the 2086.00 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks.

Regardless, the burden of proof will be on sellers to retake control. Exiting the bias environment back under its 2086.00 bias-up signal would be a start. Actually, back under 2086.00 through 10:30 would invalidate 10:15’s signal already.

Otherwise, absorbing this reaction down would be likely to extend higher today, next targeting 2110.00.

Last week’s reversal bleeding into this week’s open.

Without yet trending back up above a prior high before the weekend, last week’s rally had potential for bleeding into the new week. After making its imprint, a recovery remains possible. Potential for a recovery remains alive thanks to Sunday night’s opening surge.

Sunday night’s opening surge wasn’t outright bullish. Neutralizing the 2091.00 objective above has been the recovery’s worst development. Its reversal down to 2074.00 was recovered to attack 2086.00, which has also proved unwise.

All of that overnight optimism hasn’t just failed to gain traction intraday — it hasn’t been repeated intraday. Post-open action has only trended down, in a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Fresh lows are being probed down to 2072.50. The 2071.50 target would fulfill the 2080.25 bias-down signal’s selling pressure. Resolving any bounce lower would next target 2067.00-2069.00. Rallying from either target could recover all of the overnight drop from 2091.00.