Post-open Review

Open’s surge maintains the week’s pattern of failed bounces.

The 2030.50 low had recovered to greet the open at essentially the 2034.75 bias-down target. Post-open action surged to 2046.75. And never extended higher.

Instead, two dips tested the 2041.00 bias-down signal as support. The second test did poorly. Eventually.

Initially, the 2041.00 bias-down signal had held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. But eventually, the 2041.00 bias-down signal gave way through 10:30. It was too late to trigger, and too late to invoke a grace period. The no-bias was simply invalidated.

Tuesday afternoon’s corrective bounce was retraced entirely Wednesday night’s rally into Thursday’s gap up also fell back to its interim lows. That pattern didn’t require repeating this morning, but it did require issuing a warning in the chaRTroom. And a sell signal triggered on its second attempt.

Now the open and bias-down target are being retested. They are natural support that might produce a bounce. Extending down to the 2030.00 objective has room for noise down to 2027.25.

Bias-up target met, Bias-up signal rejected.

Gapping up above at least 2057.00 would have begun rejecting the downtrend, but the open was at only 2051.00. An aggressive post-open surge would have kept alive the rejection potential, but it dipped to test yesterday afternoon’s 2048.00 “lower prior highs.”

None of which qualified as resuming the decline’s momentum. Only as not exploiting the opportunity to invalidate the decline altogether. So, bouncing anyway would be considered only temporary backing-and-filling, refueling sellers.

The 2049.75 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2055.50 bias-up target was met to within 3 ticks. Quickly. So quickly, that there was time for violating a bounce limit, triggering a sell signal, and retracing the bias-up signal through 10:30 back down to 2048.00.

So, this morning’s bias environment is Bias-up Rejected. There is no unfinished business above. There is also no requirement to trend down — while the burden of proof is on buyers, the downtrend remains intact.

2048.00‘s retest was not bullish. Breaking back under it would target 2046.00 and 2042.00. So long as 2048.00 support isn’t broken, the balance of the morning could back-and-fill again.

Post-open bounce resembles yesterday afternoon’s rally.

Corrective bounces often exhibit the trait of urgency. Weak sponsorship will abandon a move when its momentum becomes suspicious. So, they must keep hesitation to a minimum while fulfilling their higher objective.

A pre-open dip had retested what would be this morning’s renewed bias-down target at 2042.75. So did a post-open dip, after quickly attacking 2048.00. Quickly recovering to fresh post-open highs was able to overlap the 2052.75 bias-down signal at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

All quick, like a temporary correction.

Bias-down triggered late. The 2052.75 bias-down signal should still define the range’s upper-end if retested. Its 2046.75 target was just retested, and this being a bias-down environment, it need not hold as support.

Not renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 has made lower objectives at 2030.00-2035.00 unlikely to be met this morning. The bigger picture still points there, although recovering the 2052.75 bias-down signal while the bias environment is lapsing would be bullish.

Retesting lower prior highs that had already held.

Rallying this morning was at the very least dependent upon compartmentalizing any probe under yesterday’s 2059.50 post-open low.

The open tried to compartmentalize the pre-open probing under 2059.50. That failed thanks to a blip-down during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. This also failed being compartmentalized as 9:45 was still testing 2059.50 and not rejecting it.

The result was a plunge to 2053.50, and then lower to 2050.25.

2050.50 happens to be a relevant level. It was tested AT the 10:15 bias timing window, which at least compartmentalizes the sponsorship testing it. Its reaction tested the 2056.00 area.

So long as the 2050.25 low isn’t broken — so long as the 10:15 low is THE low — exiting the bias environment back above 2059.50 could compartmentalize the probing under it. That wouldn’t be optimal, but it’s probably today’s last bullish template.

Sub-optimal gap up surfaces at fresh highs.

Gapping up above prior highs — and maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility — was critical to preventing sellers from regaining control.

Gapping up to the 2065.25 bias-up signal reacted down 4 points, and recovered in time to maintain the gap up. But it wasn’t optimal. A 30-minute range between 2059.50–2064.00 had to resolve up. It was, but only to overlap 2065.25 in time to invoke the grace period. After extending to 2068.75, bias-up triggered, but late.

All of which kept alive room for another detour on the way to this morning’s 2073.00 bias-up target. That pattern allows room to briefly test 2065.50 as support. It was just tested. And it resolved up.

That recovery didn’t prevent a knee-jerk reaction down that attacked 2062.00. A knee-jerk reaction to what, I don’t know. Back above 2066.00 would indicate it was a knee-jerk reaction anyway. Otherwise, the sub-optimal gap up will have dived deeply before the bias environment lapses.