Post-open Review

Both a pre-open AND post-open rally fail.

The recipe to rallying this morning was to compartmentalize the overnight probe of the structure at yesterday’s lows. A pre-open dip to 2053.25 had injected a healthy dose of pessimism into the overly-optimistic overnight recovery. The 2057.00 opening print trended up to 2063.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

None of which prevented sliding back down to a fresh post-open low, piercing the pre-open low down to 2052.75.

This morning’s 2055.25 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, still being overlapped both at 10:15 and 10:30 to signal noN-bias. No requirement either to test the 2049.75 bias-down target, or for an offsetting test of the 2065.75 bias-up target.

Fresh lows would still be likely to test 2049.75, and a fresh low is now being probed down to 2051.50. Again, its test isn’t required during a noN-bias environment, and exiting the bias environment back above 2057.00 would still be credible for launching an afternoon rally that the morning’ open was pushing

Failed bullish setup becomes bearish.

A bullish “session-long rally” setup would have formed from gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2070.00-2071.00 bias environment high. The setup didn’t formed, but it didn’t trigger.

Not for lack of trying — the retracement was tested for more than 3 hours before the open. It was even probed to almost 2073.00. But 2070.00 was only attacked to within 1 tick post-open.

That’s worse. The consequences of failing to trigger a formed setup are equivalent to its lost reward. And a session-long rally would have trended up throughout the day. So, with the exception of one timing window –usually the noon hour — today’s session is likely to trend down.

Meanwhile, this morning’s 2067.50 bias-up signal held as resistance through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2058.00 bias-down signal. This now being tested to within 3 ticks, so it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding. But exiting the bias environment any lower would all but require retesting last Friday’s lows.

Opening dip is recovered after news.

Surging out of the open was the most appropriate behavior for resuming the rally this morning. Recovering 2076.00 would have been appropriate, too. But the open’s 2-1/2 point surge only touched 2076.00, and then attacked the overnight lows down to 2070.50.

Perhaps the recovery was just inhibited by the impending EIA news. Already having firmed back up to the 2073.00 bias-down signal, the news triggered a 5-point surge.

The grace period had been invoked, so the 10:30 surge can be assumed to have triggered late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias-up signal is in-play. That would fulfill the traction gained by yesterday’s rally.

Back under 2074.25 would undermine the recovery — or, at least, undermine extending the recovery today.

Post-open action trends up.

Gapping up to 2062.25 quickly extended to 2065.50 and threatened to be too optimistic to be maintained. But an equally quick reaction down to 2062.25 corrected at least 61.8% of the open’s surge.

That hesitation was critical according to my description during the pre-market Tour. Probing fresh highs as the opening 15 minutes of volatility were lapsing was extended back to the 2069.25 overnight high. Reacting down to 2065.50 has been retraced back to the high.

Exceeding the 2063.25 bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. Its 2068.00 renewed bias-up target is met already, and not exceeded in time to doubly renew the bias-up signal.

Despite not doubly renewing the bias-up, extending higher would next target 2071.00-2072.00. Back under 2066.50 would target 2063.75. Extending higher gets a benefit of the doubt, and the consequence to reversing down is no longer as bearish. But this afternoon’s action should extend the rally if a reversal is going to be avoided.

Post-open surge still thoroughly tests resistance.

The 2055.00 bias-up signal just triggered. So long as it isn’t invalidated back under 2055.00 through 10:30, it’s entirely capable of testing its 2061.00 target.

2055.00 is being tested now as support. It’s too late to trigger no-bias and to require an offsetting test of the 2041.00 bias-down signal. Not bouncing back above it through 10:30, and no longer overlapping 2055.00 would simply invalidate the bias-up.

Recovering to 2056.00-2057.00, and probing it up to 2058.75, expended a lot of buying pressure. I would have given it a benefit of the doubt if it had extended quickly through 2059.50. But buyers aren’t exploiting that, as now 2052.00 is being tested as support.

Regardless of the bias environment, there is room back down to 2041.00 simply as noise, while waiting for new traction to be gained.