Post-open Review

Overlapping and congestion won’t easily let go.

The potential target of a corrective bounce is 2020.50. But what is the potential FOR a corrective bounce?

Potential for a corrective bounce had subsided after the open’s blip-down to 2012.25 was recovered up to 2018.25. Support at 2015.25 was probed by 1 point.

Bounce potential was reignited by recovering that probe as quickly as it had developed. Its reaction has now touched 2019.25. The potential FOR a corrective bounce is greater, meaning so is the potential of 2020.50.

Regardless, the open’s congestion and overlapping creates an attraction that will likely attract price back down to it. And likely also through it, down to the 2009.00 objective.

Not maintaining yesterday’s recovery is now followed by retracing its origin.

The pre-open slide greeted the open at 2036.50 and then extended further down to 2031.75. Consolidating around the 2034.50 bias-down signal for a half-hour didn’t imply any greater strength there. A better example would have been to quickly launch a rally from there, instead of chipping away at its support.

But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

An initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the EIA Crude Oil data triggered a blip-up to 2038.50. It blapped-down by 10:30 to isolate itself as only a knee-jerk reaction. But 2034.50 was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

Being noN-bias, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not in-play, and neither is a test of the bias-down target. The bias-down signal isn’t required to define the range’s lower-end. That said, price is often inhibited from trending away from the bias-down signal throughout the noN-bias environment, but trending either way away from it would still be credible because it isn’t prohibited. Trending away from the bias-down signal is often retraced.

Regardless, nothing about the opening action is bullish. And it’s just bearish enough to maintain the bearish scenario.

Post-open dip is reversed up.

Regardless of having no durable effect on price action, there’s usually a near-term reverence for events like Belgium’s. So, firming post-open up to 2035.00 was retraced to the 2030.50 pre-open low.

And that was it. At least, so far.

The post-open dip’s reaction has recovered back up to 2039.00. This area is critical, and would have produced a deep drop if tested immediately post-open. Testing it after dipping already could extend.

That would also help to confirm this morning’s no-bias signal. The 2035.75 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Fresh post-open highs at 10:30 would help to confirm an offsetting test of the 2045.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Only opening action briefly displays upward aggression.

The overnight gyration was duplicated on a smaller scale by a post-open surge. The 2036.00 open had extended up to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2041.50 bias-up signal. It hasn’t been straight down from there, but it has been only down.

A pullback to 2036.50 was anticipated, but it extended back to the 2033.50 pre-open low. And triggering no-bias after testing the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal — which would be effectively a retest of the 2031.00 overnight lows.

Is the bullish WedEX dead if a target is in-play below?A bounce from 2033.50 prevented extending deeper than the first 3 minutes under the sell signal. Back under 2034.50 would resume the decline. Otherwise, back above 2037.00 could try the bullish WedEX again.

Even sluggish follow-through isn’t preventing higher highs.

Gapping up to and/or through yesterday’s 2036.75 high was the only way to resume the rally this morning, since yesterday afternoon’s buyers gained no traction for their efforts. A pre-open pullback to 2033.00 had recovered to open at 2036.75.

The opening 15 minutes didn’t extend higher but only ranged widely around the 2036.75 prior high. Nevertheless, a pullback to the 2034.50 bias-up signal was recovered to fresh highs at 2040.75. That satisfied the 2039.75 bias-up signal, without exceeding it through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Back under 2037.25  (being tested now) would be likely to retest the 2034.50 bias-up signal as support. The reaction down could extend into the noon hour. The pullback could test 2031.00 or the 2027.00 overnight low.

A pullback is easier said than done. This is still a bias-up environment. Expiration’s upside bias remains very much intact. And any downdraft’s recovery remains likely by the afternoon’s bullish WedEX.