Post-open Review

No upside rush or downside attraction, allowing time to fluctuate.

The pre-open bounce from 2006.00 had attacked 2018.00, but needed to extend a little further before retracing 61.8% of the overnight slide. Then the bounce was able to peak, and to be retraced, halfway back down to touch 2012.00.

Neither bias signal was touched, so there’s no requirement for an offsetting test of the other bias signal, or to test a bias target. But there’s room to fluctuate between the bias signals.

Bouncing back above 2016.75 (being tested now) could extend to test this morning’s 2023.00 bias-up signal. Back under 2014.25 would target 2011.00 and potentially also the 2008.00 bias-down signal.

Pre-open dip retraces to unchanged.

Sliding down to 1997.00 had recovered to greet the open at 2000.25, which is 3 ticks above the 1999.50 bias-down signal. Trending straight up from there touched 2008.75, which is 3 ticks short of the 2009.50 bias-up signal.

Neither bias signal was touched before 10:15 failed to trigger either, so an offsetting test of the other signal is not in-play. Coming within 3 ticks can neutralize the attraction, anyway.

So, having produced and retraced two convincing trending attempts since yesterday’s “equilibrium” close, the morning range may be set.

Overbought RSIs at the high suggest its eventual retest, and potential trending attempt to fresh highs triggered above 2008.00. Meanwhile, back under 2004.75 would signal momentum reversing back down, presumably to retest the open.

“When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” Ralph Waldo Emerson.

Gapping down to and/or through Friday’s low would have begun rejecting its breakout.By the same token — it’s flip-side, actually — coming that close without succeeding would only trap shorts. And squeezing them could succeed where Monday had failed, fueling the rally’s resumption.

The pre-open low was probed by 1 tick down to 1995.50. An interim bounce to 2000.50 was reversed to a fresh low at 1995.00. All that volatility and lower lows, yet the 1998.50 bias-down target was still being overlapped at 10:15.

So, the bias-down signal was not renewed. It also wasn’t rejected in time to signal a recovery yet underway. Meanwhile, fresh lows had room down to 1993.50, albeit likely to recover.

The fresh lows were prevented by a surge attacking 2003.00. Its timing is no more credible than probing fresh lows — either is likely to be retraced. In fact, the surge has reacted down to 2000.00.

Back under 1998.50 would suggest 1993.50 is back-in play. Testing it at this stage (rejecting the interim surge) would be a little less likely to recover. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2004.00 bias-down signal would instead confirm that trapped shorts are fueling a recovery back to 2010.00-2012.00.

Choppy fluctuation around critical support.

Hovering narrowly around the 2006.00 bias-down signal opened there, and then bounced to attack 2009.00. Reacting down to fresh lows came within 2-3 ticks of the 2001.50 bias-down target.

But bias-down was never signaled. It was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

This morning is not bias-down, so the bias-down target isn’t in-play. It’s not no-bias, so an offsetting test of the bias-up signal isn’t in-play.

That said, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2012.00 close is likely. Potentially also a fresh high testing this morning’s 2013.00 bias-up target.

Back under 2004.00 would start targeting fresh session lows. Otherwise, sellers are likely marginalized.

Gap up is neither rejected nor extended.

The 2002.25 overnight high was formed coming out of Europe’s opens. It hasn’t been rejected. Ranging back down to 1995.00 persisted into the open. It persisted through the open, too.

Actually, post-open ranging narrowed to 1996.00-2001.50. Dry cleaners morning?

Bears are undermined by not quickly rejecting the gap up to a prior extreme. By also not quickly extending the gap up, a momentary detour down becomes likely so the momentum of its recovery can boost the rally. As that detour down delays recovery, the eventual rally boost becomes less likely, or likely to be brief.

Nothing requires extending higher, not today or ever. But the ongoing consolidation is forming congestion which is likely to be retested by a failed trending attempt.