Post-open Review

Opening weakness ultimately holds critical support.

The 1982.00 open was 2-3 points under yesterday’s close. Post-open action trended down immediately — and substantially, attacking the 1975.50 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. A bounce resolved down to retest 1975.50 by a couple of ticks.

Another bounce pierced it yet again. That last test invoked the grace period, and ultimately the 1975.50 bias-down signal did not trigger. So, this is a late no-bias environment.

An offsetting test of the 1986.00 bias-up signal is in-play. Its test isn’t required since the bias signaled late. But already fresh post-open highs just touched 1983.00.

Meanwhile, the 1982.00 open is being overlapped. It is natural resistance. But fresh session highs remain likely so long as pullbacks hold 1979.00.

Recovery attempts resisted by yesterday’s close.

Opening at the 1971.00 attraction firmed to within 3 ticks of yesterday’s 1975.50 cash session close. Its reaction stretched the rubber band to attack 1968.00, and snapped back up to 1 point above yesterday’s 1975.50 cash session close.

The 1977.00 bias-up signal wasn’t triggered, only attacked to within 2 ticks. The next reaction attacked the 1966.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick.

Being a no-bias environment, the bias signals should define either end of its range. Back above 1971.00 (being tested now) would suggest a retest of the range’s upper-end, which could extend higher as the bias environment starts lapsing. Similarly, breaking lower immediately wouldn’t be credible.

Delayed recovery of resistance nevertheless extends higher.

Recovering (or not) 1943.00 through the open could have been predictive of the morning. It was tested and probed pre-open. The open pierced it only momentarily. And then a reaction down tested 1938.50.

And retested it. Meanwhile, 1943.00 wasn’t recovered through the open. But was testing and retesting 1938.50 a sufficient offset?

We discussed that question in the chaRTroom while leaving the door open to a buy signal. It triggered above 1943.75. Bias-up triggered easily, and despite holding the 1946.00 bias-up target’s test through 10:15, a surge just touched yesterday morning’s 1956.00 high.

Reversing down from here would leave no “unfinished business above” to prevent extending a downleg. Reversing down from here would be signaled by exiting the morning’s bias environment back under its 1946.00 bias-up target.

Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 1951.00. Not reversing down would be likely to accomplish what yesterday morning’s late weak-handed rally did not — retesting Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high.

Flat open not attracting new sponsorship.

Friday’s cash session close equated to 1946.00. The overnight to 1928.00 was recovered to probe above 1946.00 by a couple of points before the open. Post-open action has not extended that recovery.

Instead, the open immediately dipped back down to 1941.00-1942.00. Not gapping down had made a durable downleg unlikely. But it didn’t require a recovery, and there hasn’t been one.

The pre-open recovery to 1948.00 is being touched again now. It’s both too late and too early to be reliable for extending higher. Nevertheless, during this no-bias environment, its 1953.00 bias-up signal can be tested.

Back under 1944.00 would likely also test the 1940.25 bias-down signal. Testing 1937.00 was likely, too, until this bounce back to 1948.00.

Regardless of this morning’s range, its delayed resolution does offer another suggestion that topping is underway.

Overnight rally retraces entire excess.

1946.00 was the minimum objective to retesting Monday’s highs, potentially to 1952.00-1953.00. That potential became likelier as reward for recovering from a deeper and more prolonged pullback. In fact, it was relevant resistance when attacked overnight. And its eventual break launched a rally to sharply higher highs at 1968.75.

But only momentarily. The reaction down from 1968.75 still held up enough to gap up at 1960.00. But trending down from there has touched yesterday’s 1949.50 high.

1949.50 happens also to be yesterday’s cash session close equivalent, which is natural support. While 3-minute RSI made a higher oversold low, 1-minute RSI diverged positively. And now a bounce is testing 1955.00.

A bigger bounce would target 1962.75, while filling the open’s 1960.00. gap. Holding its test and closing negative would seal a top. Meanwhile, this morning’s noN-bias signal has no objective of its own.