Post-open Review

Rewarding yesterday’s buyers isn’t being prioritized.

The open’s 6-point surge up to 1936.50 was brief and quickly retraced. Retraced and reversed down to and through the 1927.25 bias-up signal on the way to 1922.00.

A bounce recovered 1927.25 in time to invoke the grace period, but it was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not no-bias, which would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And not bias-up.

Up still still seems likelier than down. The bigger picture still suggests probing Monday’s 1943.75 high, despite having reacted down this morning from touching its range. Continually recovering to probe above yesterday’s 1929.25 high suggests this morning’s bias environment intends to reward yesterday afternoon’s buyers. And a clean rejection of both bias-up parameters was itself rejected.

Having said that, 1927.25 should hold as support. Probing it by several ticks would suggest something much more bearish is beginning to overwhelm the bullish influences.

Opening dip reacts up a little, shuts down a lot.

Opening at 1900.00 was sent to fresh lows testing 1895.00. A reaction up tested 1898.00, stopping 1-2 ticks short of a buy signal before reacting back down. Being the 9:45 bar, it neither held nor rejected 1898.00. But being 9:45, no already recovering made further downside likely.

Fresh lows did eventually extend down to 1888.00. Choppy action since then could form a bottom back above 1891.50 and 1895.50. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1884.00.

Post-open congestion breaks lower.

Already recovering 13-1/2 points to touch 1938.00 before the open was unable to extend any higher. Opening at or around this morning’s 1933.00 bias-down signal ranged choppily there through the first half hour.

Then it broke lower. The 1927.25 bias-down target was being tested at 10:15. But not exceeded. It’s still a bias-down environment, but it should be noted that holding a test of the target is often a bottom.

Oversold RSIs at he low require its eventual retest. Nothing requires that retest to hold as support. Regardless, the bullish scenario would likely exit the morning’s bias environment already in rally mode. Its reward would be to probe above yesterday’s highs.

The 1924.50 overnight low can be tested, or even probed, without yet reversing the trend down. Indeed, post-open overlapping of yesterday’s range makes a durable downleg unlikely at this stage.

Actively bullish WedEX remains influential.

Dipping into the open probed only momentarily under the 1933.00 area. It was just long enough to introduce a preliminary buy signal above 1934.25. And that was just in time to capture a surge from 1932.00.

The surge also triggered the more reliable buy signal above 1936.75. That was on the way to 1940.50, which pierced January’s high.

An obligatory dip recovered to fresh highs at 1943.00. Room for a temporary pullback down to 1936.75-1938.25 has been touched, barely.

The bullish WedEX’s influence remains intact. The degree to which price has extended already, and its steep slope, only reinforces that continued influence — despite the inclination being to suspect that it is tiring.

Meanwhile, probing a fresh high is entirely consistent with the scenario described during this weekend’s Saturday Review. Although the shallowest of probes was enough to fulfill its retest, there is potential to 1952.00-1953.00 The bullish WedEX suggests at least a probe above 1943.00.

Pre-open dip tries extending, fails.

The 1901.75 bias-down target had been attacked to within 2 ticks before the open, which then surged to 1909.00. Another dip extended to fresh lows at 1898.75.

That low was retested after an interim bounce up to the 1907.00 bias-down signal.  But the bias-down target held as support. And eventually, so did the bias-down signal, triggering a late no-bias.

Now yesterday’s “higher prior lows” are being tested up to 1912.00.

Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. A timely signal would have required at least the bias-up signal’s test. This morning’s late signal doesn’t require anything, but tests of both bias-up parameters remains likely.

This afternoon’s bullish WedEX continues to suggest that sellers will continually fail their attempts to retake control. That said, exiting the bias environment back under 1907.00 would undermine the afternoon upside.