Post-open Review

From both bias-ups through both bias-downs.

The pre-open high touched this morning’s 1910.75 bias-up target just 10 minutes before the open. Its reaction down quickly fell under the 1904.50 bias-up signal. Rejecting tests of both bias-up parameters through 10:15 would put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters.

But, wait, there’s more.

The 1890.75 bias-down signal and 1885.50 bias-down target were tested, too. And exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. That has been exceeded by another 20 points down to 1865.00.

Substantial selling pressure is required to reject tests of both bias-up parameters and to trigger both bias-down parameters. This is very unusual activity, so be prepared for almost anything.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI has ended with a bounce above 1874.25. That put into play a test of this morning’s 1885.50 bias-down, which is now met to within 3 ticks.

Simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. Back under 1876.00 and 1872.25 would signal that leg underway, targeting 1862.75.

Probing into last week’s range below.

The open’s make-or-break seems to have broken. A narrow pre-open consolidation quickly extended down under 1911.00 to test 1904.50. That broke lower to 1901.25, a little short of its potential to the 1900.00 area.

Back above 1905.50 could begin a corrective bounce up to 1911.00 and 1915.00. Otherwise, the 1900.00 area could be probed down to 1886.00 before signaling a much bigger decline underway.

And a much bigger decline would be to probe under last week’s lows, resuming the prior downleg. Testing 1900.00 and 1886.00 can be avoided by a bigger bounce. But the bigger bounce must be productive going into the noon hour to be credible.

Post-open probes under support recover.

The overnight drop had attacked 1913.00 to within 3 ticks. Bouncing into and out of the open tested the 1922.00 bias-down signal as resistance.

So, the gap down had avoided 1913.00. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had held two tests of Friday afternoon’s bias environment low. A durable reversal down wasn’t credible.

But fresh lows remained possible if buyers weren’t regaining control. And buyers weren’t regaining control.

Several econ reports helped that bounce resolve down to fresh lows testing 1913.00. Another bounce tested the post-open high and the 1922.00 bias-down signal, which held again.

Triggering late bias-down, whose target has been met, only requires the morning’s upper-end to be defined by the 1922.00 bias-down signal. Meanwhile, attacking or probing the lows is possible down to 1914.00 or 1911.50, but not required.

Fresh high finds resistance.

Opening at the 1893.50 bias-up signal extended higher almost immediately into a congestion around the 1898.50 bias-up target. Surging out of it to 1907.00 was extended up to 1911.50.

That’s above Wednesday’s 1910.00 prior high. And that’s where early strength risked reversing down hard. That was especially a risk from 1913.00, but it wasn’t touched. And its reaction down was delayed.

So, a pullback to 1902.00 is now trying to recover. Perhaps even to resume the rally, next targeting 1913.00. Otherwise, back under 1902.50 would target 1898.50 for a last chance to resume rallying today.

Overshadowing the choppy overnight range.

The pre-open surge to 1902.00 had retraced to greet the open at 1892.00. Rather than improve, the gap up narrowed to test 1887.50. Reacting up couldn’t get past the opening range before headlines triggered a deeper drop.

And having rejected tests of both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of the bias-down parameters were put into play.

The rejection came late, as still overlapping the 1882.00 bias-up signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. Only the 1869.25 bias-down signal’s test is required. The 1862.75 bias-down target’s test won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding.

And it might be left outstanding. The bias-down signal was tested down to 1866.00. Filling the gap back to yesterday’s close and testing the overnight low has reacted up to within 6 ticks of 1887.50.

Back under 1879.25 would start to signal the bounce had failed. But exiting the bias environment back above its 1887.50 bias-up target could resume the overnight recovery — recoveries — this time without hesitation before testing 1913.00.