Post-open Review

Opening recovery attempt fails..

Probing above the 1890.00 overnight highs pre-open had reacted down post-open to touch the 1887.50 bias-down signal. It reaction up probed fresh highs up to 1894.25.

And held.

The 1887.50 bias-down signal was probed in reaction to the 10:00 econ report. That extended sharply to test the 1881.00 bias-down target by 10:15.

And held.

This is a bias-down environment whose target has been met. Usually, that establishes the morning’s floor. But not renewing the bias-down by 10:15 doesn’t prevent probing under its target after 10:15. This is, after all, a bias-down environment.

Meanwhile, retesting 1881.00 has produced a bounce up to 1889.50. That’s above the 1887.50 bias-down signal, which should define the the bias environment’s upper-end, until approaching its 11:30 exit.

Doubly-renewed bias-up.

The open’s blip-up immediately pierced 1881.00. It was soon exceeded to attack 1886.00. Still it reacted down to 1874.50.

The opening rally’s post-open reaction down still recovered up to 1892.25. The 1876.50 bias-up signal was renewed above its 1882.25 bias-up target AND doubly-renewed above its 1887.50 renewed bias-up target at 10:15.

All of which is testing 1891.50,  which remains a critical retracement of yesterday afternoon’s drop, as it was at the time. And RSIs just diverged negatively into its test.

That’s not a sell signal, but it does signal vulnerability to at least a corrective dip with potential down to 1884.00. Back under 1888.00 would suggest the dip is underway.

Extending above 1891.50 — and not just overlapping it — might find obligatory resistance at yesterday’s 1895.00 highs. But just extending above 1891.50 would already suggest the rally to 1915.00-1920.00 remains intact.

Hovering just above Friday’s lows.

Gapping down under Friday’s 1884.00 low was the minimum requirement to signal that the corrective rally had ended. Gapping down a little could have extended down post-open to suggest the same. But the open’s gap down has not extended.

Rallying immediately is not necessarily the alternative. Bias-down was triggered under 1982.00 at 10:15, putting into play a test of its 1885.75 bias-down target. Meeting it would still keep the door open to resuming the corrective rally.

Back above 1894.00 would suggest the bias-down is invalid, targeting at least a retest of Friday’s 1900.00-1902.00 highs. Meanwhile, fresh lows are likely, albeit only temporarily, before the corrective rally can resume.

Post-open gains retraced.

The open’s test of 1892.00 didn’t surge higher. Extending up required first blipping-down to 1887.00 stretched the rubber band. Its reversal tested the next higher objective at 1898.00.

1898.00 was probed up to 1900.00. Throughout a half-hour, every high bar also overlapped 1898.00. The next half hour retraced the open back down to 1890.00.

And now the open’s blip-down to 1887.00 is being retraced, too, down to 1886.00.

This being a Friday, the open’s bias should persist. So, having maintained an uptrend through 10:15, selling pressure should be counter-trend, sponsored by weak hands — and likely to be retraced at least to retest 1898.00.

Is yesterday’s high finally being probed?

Not gapping down steeply kept alive the likelihood for rewarding yesterday’s rally by probing yesterday’s highs this morning. That’s difficult to believe when the pre-open surge to 1874.00 is reversing down to 1841.00 into and out of the close.

Just a little hiccup.

Testing the 1846.00 bias-down signal held through 10:15 to avoid triggering. That would put into play an offsetting test of the 1865.00 bias-up signal. But the bias-up signal was being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

And it was overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

Its 1869.25 bias-up target was met anyway. And it has been probed up to 1873.75. The reward due yesterday afternoon’s sponsorship (i.e. control of this morning’s bias environment) suggests that probing above yesterday’s highs will persist a little longer.