Post-open Review

Post-open surge reverses down, to a degree.

Recovering pre-open back to yesterday’s 2009.50 futures close had already made the open less predictable. Its surge to 2012.50, if maintained through the opening 15 minutes, would have made the 2010.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger. But 2012.50 was being retested at 9:45 to avoid offering any predictability.

Holding a test of the 2010.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 1999.00 bias-down signal. Finally, predictability! Then it was met, neutralizing its attraction.

Price suddenly reacted up sharply and substantially. Like yesterday’s late surge, no accumulation preceded it. And like yesterday’s late surge, it peaked upon testing 2009.50. So far.

This is still a no-bias environment, and 2010.00 is still this morning’s bias-up signal. Probing any higher would still be “no-bias trending” much before  the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. Waiting patiently to probe above 2011.50 would be credible for extending the recovery.

Back under 2005.50 would start to signal this morning’s ranging was going to resolve down, probably targeting a probe under yesterday’s lows.

Pre-open low fails to hold.

The choppy open has trended down, albeit with wide legs between its lower lows and lower highs. The 1995.00 low’s bounce to 2003.50 was retraced almost entirely before the open. Fresh lows down to 1990.50 reacted up to attack 2000.00, but that resolved down to 1988.50. Another bounce is now also failing.

Ultimately, the bias timing window has now lapsed into the bias environment. No prior high is recovered, let alone challenged. The bottoming potential has largely eroded.

One more line of defense is at 1987.00, and its success would be signaled by exiting the bias environment back above 1995.00. Otherwise, objectives under 1987.00 can be better measured in time than in price — like Wednesday morning, during which time a lot of damage can be done.

Pre-open plunge extending post-open.

The overnight Symmetrical Triangle broke sharply in one direction. As sharply as possible to still be within the Symmetrical Triangle’s orbit. That kept it vulnerable to being a false breakout that reverses more substantially in the opposite direction, if already reversing up by 9:45.

But the clock kept ticking.

The 2045.50 pre-open low was a 261.8% extension of the Triangle. Retesting it had to be done and recovered almost immediately to be dismissed as opening noise. The open’s 5-point plunge to 2043.00 did react up immediately back above 2045.50. Extending higher would leave no new low requiring a retest.

But the clock kept ticking.

Multiple tests of 2043.00 held their 3-minute lows, but the reactions couldn’t recover 2045.50. Chipping away at their support could have avoided requiring an eventual break lower, regardless of the path there.

But the clock stopped ticking.

The 2046.00 bias-down target wasn’t recovered by 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal and putting into play 2039.00. It was quickly met by a 6-point plunge to 2037.00.

2039.00 has so far held, its test reacting up to 2041.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require its retest, probably down to 2036.25. Back above 2044.50 would start to suggest the oversold RSIs will be left outstanding by a bigger detour.

Bias-down target met, RSIs firm, bad news discounted.

The shallowly weak open at this morning’s 2068.00 bias-down signal immediately extended to fresh lows at 2064.00 and lower. A bounce reversed down even lower. The 2061.50 bias-down target was just touched.

The bounce attacked the bias-down signal to within 2-3 ticks at 2067.50.Having resolved in a fresh low, recovering 2067.50 would still be credible for reversing momentum back up. This may be today’s only remaining path to probing above yesterday’s highs. RSIs weren’t oversold at the low, and back above 2063.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back up

Also potentially bullish is Crude Oil’s reaction to a bearish EIA report. We discussed that possibility during the pre-market Tour. An emotional reaction would be likely, but likely only temporary, as the news would follow two earlier bearish items (API and Saudis) that are already discounted. If Crude isn’t actually extending down, then stocks have a chance to bottom.

Otherwise, no lower objective is in-play. But not signaling a recovery could simply drift lower.

Post-open surge takes the last leg up.

The pre-open surge to 2063.75 tested a two-week old pivotal high that had to be exceeded if touched post-open. That was ensured by surging from the 2061.00 open to 2066.00.

Eking higher has now attacked 2069.00, the two-week old actual high. The resolution to its test is less relevant at this stage. But the pattern has been to stop pessimistically short of resistance before a corrective dip launches a new upleg.

A corrective dip back under 2066.00 could end at 2064.00 or 2061.50 — still well into positive territory and above the open. Much lower would have room to the 2055.00 area, as more of the corrective dip, without reversing the trend down.