Post-open Review

Post-open recovery stops short.

Of two bullish paths, one was disqualified by the pre-open bounce to 2045.50. It required at least attacking the 2041.50 bias-down target, if not actually retesting it.

The post-open dip did retest it, and recovered to within 1 tick of the 2047.00 bias-down signal. Resisting its approach was expected, and so was the potential for its reaction down not holding corrective limits.

Corrective pullback limits didn’t hold. The reaction down extended through the 2040.25 overnight low to 2037.75. The 2041.50 bias-down target’s break through 10:15 renewed the bias-down signal.

RSIs diverged positively at the low, enabling a 3-point bounce. It has room up to 2041.75 or 2043.25 before suggesting an actual recovery underway. Meanwhile, back under 2038.75 would start to signal the drop was extending to 2034.25 and potentially 2032.00.

Opening surge hits resistance, crawls back into its hole.

The pre-open pattern that I described during the Tour had formed a setup which could surge immediately. And it did, from 2053.75 to 2057.25.

Yesterday’s cash session close equates to 2057.00. Its obligatory resistance was enough to end the surge. Its reaction down fell back into the pre-open pattern’s range. And then through it to 2050.75.

Bouncing back up to 2054.75 was retraced to 2052.00. Probing beyond either end is possible, but not required. And trending is unlikely to begin this far past the open with an early close looming.

[NOTE: There is no Afternoon Bias.]

Gap up maintained, but not necessarily extending.

The opening print was shared by the 2043.00 bias-up target. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ranged faithfully around 2043.00. Congestion there makes trending away difficult, at least the first time. Probing up to 2047.25 has been retraced back down to 2043.00.

Halfway to two-thirds through the opening 15 minutes of volatility didn’t retrace or reject the gap up. Dipping any later would likely recover, probably from 2038.00. No relevant level’s test during the opening 15 minutes of volatility wasn’t maintained, so trending up remains possible.

There’s no requirement to extend higher. But the path of least resistance remains up. Extending higher would next target 2048.00, with potential to 2053.00 and 2058.00-2060.00.

Pre-open surge steals post-open thunder.

The overnight slide from 2023.25 to 2007.25 had recovered to form a Rising Wedge. Any post-open strength from the pattern would have been credible to extend sharply higher.

But a pre-open surge to 2024.00 fulfilled the 2022.25 bias-up target and inhibited post-open sponsorship. Reacting down became likelier, and the open extended down to 2011.50.

Both bias-up parameters had been tested, and both almost rejected, except the grace period was invoked. Dropping to 2010.75 recovered the 2015.00 bias-up signal in time to trigger late. Its recovery has extended to 2019.25. Extending higher could reach 2027.00 just as noise around the open’s range.

Having already met the 2022.25 bias-up target, its retest isn’t required. Having triggered late bias-up, sellers aren’t marginalized. Back under the 2015.00 bias-up signal by 2-3 ticks would be credible for reversing momentum down. The window for retesting Friday’s 1991.00 low is rapidly shrinking.

Gap up not extending, or rejected.

The pre-open pullback to 2006.25 was recovered through the open to retest the 2013.75 overnight high. This morning’s 2014.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 1 tick, but never touched. It won’t be considered “unfinished business above” if never actually met.

But the 2014.75 bias-up target is in-play. This is a bias-up environment, since the 2005.25 bias-up signal triggered. A post-open dip attacked it to within 2 ticks, but didn’t break lower.

The bearish WedEX can influence price down anyway. But that should be triggered under 2009.25, if at all. Exiting the bias environment above its 2014.75 bias-up target could marginalize sellers through Christmas. Otherwise, filling the gap back down to Friday’s close remains outstanding.