Post-open Review

Pre-open dive is retraced by the open, reversed through it.

Payrolls had triggered an 8-point surge to retest the 2062.75 overnight highs. Its reaction down was exacerbated by OPEC news that sent Crude Oil down. But a pre-open test of 2047.75 sent price back up to greet the open at this morning’s 2053.50 bias-up signal.

Triggering the 2056.50 buy signal extended higher to and through the overnight highs up to 2069.75. Its reaction down to 2063.00 has been ranging around the 2065.00-2066.00 renewed bias-up target. This is a bias-up environment, whose renewed target has been met — narrowly missing a doubly-renewed bias-up.

Overbought RSIs at the 2069.75 high require its eventual retest, which should include 2070.50. Avoiding its retest would further suggest that any other pullback will recover. Meanwhile, its retest isn’t precluded from extending higher than 2070.50.

Pre-open bounce fails to attract post-open buyers.

The pre-open drop to 2072.00 was recovered pre-open up to 2087.50. Like the overnight rally — and like recent overnight and pre-open rallies — that cycle forced the open to defend against another pullback.

Defenses were down.

Opening at the 2082.00 bias-up signal was reversed down to the 2076.50 and through the 2071.50 bias-down target. The 10:15 bias timing window was testing the renewed 2066.25 renewed bias-down target.

And holding.

This is still a bias-down environment. And spending more than several minutes probing a fresh low would likely become a new downleg targeting 2051.00.

Meanwhile, a lot of selling pressure has been expended. Even this morning’s most bullish scenario can be limited to 2075.00 or 2079.75. But that’s the scenario that would open the door to a bullish afternoon.

Not extending higher, but not yet correcting.

Yesterday’s late surge originated too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Never mind, gapping up today could have indicated reinforcements had arrived overnight. The delay of not gapping up could have been compensated by the open trending up relentlessly to probe overnight highs.

Triggering the bias-up was the last opportunity for offsetting the other shortcomings. But the 2103.00 bias-up signal held its test. Twice.

This is a no-bias environment, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2095.50 bias-down signal. More so, this confirms the bearish influences we began discussing during yesterday’s Wrap before the close. All interim buying pressure is trapped. The actual pullback could test 2090.00, or even probe temporarily under 2088.00.

Unless the bias environment were to begin lapsing at 11:30 above its 2103.00 bias-up signal, the bearish pressure can persist into the afternoon.

Two aggressive rally legs met by big selling.

Similar to the overnight 12-point rally that had reacted down 9 points, a post-open 10-point surge was retraced, too. And then some. Almost 3 points under its origin.

Gapping up above 2086.00 was likely to extend through 2088.00 and resume the rally. The 2091.75 bias-up target was soon exceeded on the way to 2097.25.

Being within the renewed bias-up target area, a lot of buying pressure was satisfied. But its reaction down slid all the way to the 2091.75 bias-up target. And then its support cratered by plunging down to 2084.25.

The 2086.00 bias-up signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was recovered through 10:30 to trigger late. Its target and renewed target have been met, so resuming the rally isn’t required. But sellers did not regain control.

I’m still giving every benefit of the doubt to resuming the rally. The balance of this morning might become a little choppier and less trending. But overbought RSIs at the 2097.25 high require an eventual retest. Meanwhile, the burden of proof is still on sellers.

Overnight rally slides into and out of the open.

Fresh highs were probed up to 2095.00, which is 1 point above this morning’s bias-up signal. But the open was greeted at 2091.00, and its break has extended down to 2083.25. That’s more than 1 point under the bias-down signal.

The 2084.50 bias-down signal was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It’s being somewhat recovered at 10:30.

This is a “late no-bias” environment. An offsetting test of the 2094.00 bias-up signal is in-play.  Late signals are less reliable, and I wasn’t bearish coming into the session, but I would be much more bullish back above 2090.00.