Post-open Review

There are two paths to higher prices.

The premise was that this morning wouldn’t trend down, and that the rally can resume. Influences included light volume and participation, and greeting the open from a bounce back into the 2088.00-2091.00 range instead of above or below it

That outlook had two possible templates — either to trigger bias-up, or to hold a test of the bias-down signal which would put into play an attraction back up to the bias-up signal.

It wasn’t the former.

The open dipped under 2088.00 to test this morning’s 2084.50 bias-down signal down to 2081.50. The grace period was invoked, but recovering to 2087.00 helped to trigger a late no-bias.

So, it might be the latter.

Late bias signals are less reliable than timely signals. But thinner participation hasn’t changed. It’s only gotten more so. If the opening crowd couldn’t break the range’s lower-end, post-open sponsorship is less likely. Price can rise without sponsorship, simply for gravitating back up to the bias-up signal’s resistance.

None of which dictates remaining long regardless. But the burden of proof is on sellers, which requires pullbacks to hold 2084.50.

Beware that participation may have begun evaporating.

The open’s dive down to 2083.25 reacted back up to the 2088.00 open, which is also this morning’s bias-up signal. Ranging around it avoided triggering the signal at 10:15. But the grace period at 10:30 was still overlapping the signal.

So, this is a noN-bias environment.

An offsetting test of the 2079.75 bias-down signal is not in-play. The 2088.00 bias-up signal need not define the range’s upper-end. Often, a noN-bias environment does simply range at the bias signal, but that’s not required, either.

Regardless, I still don’t like the upside potential, having failed to gap up above prior highs. But exiting the bias environment above 2088.00 when volume really begins evaporating would be vulnerable to drifting higher through the afternoon, anyway.

Pre-open bounce finds post-open sellers. Eventually.

Opening at 2071.50 was already 4 points off the most recent pre-open low. But it was still far short of the 2077.75-2079.00 resistance described during the pre-market Tour as differentiating between temporary bounce or continuing the drop.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility came within 3 ticks of 2079.00 before peaking. Its reaction down finally got underway, and has made up for lost time by retracing all of the pre-open low down to 2067.00.

The plunge’s 2065.50 low can be retested, too, and probably by a wide margin. This is Tuesday of Thanksgiving week, and sellers can control it all. Back above 2072.75 would be the minimum requirement to even begin considering they’re done.

Overnight slide is not repeated.

Last night’s tests of the 2091.50 bias-up signal had resolved down to test this morning’s 2082.50 bias-down signal. The bias-up signal had been recovered pre-open to within 3 ticks at 2090.75.

Back under 2084.50 after the open would have repeated the overnight drop, and probably accelerated it. But the post-open dip only touched 2084.50, never triggering. Its reaction up was retraced entirely, but not another tick, also not triggering.

That’s 2-3 rounds of selling, and still no break lower.

So, another bounce has probed last night’s highs up to 2093.00. Despite invoking the grace period, the 2091.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger at 10:30. An offsetting test of the 2082.50 bias-down signal is in-play.

That would be a 3rd or 4th round of selling.

Back under 2089.00 would signal momentum reversing down, targeting 2082.50. Printing a fresh high first would allow me to raise the sell signal. The bearish WedEX’s influence should have been aggressive by now if it were influential at all, but the post-open pattern doesn’t prevent a steep slide. Regardless, resuming the rally here is much less likely– at least, before noon.

The rally has accomplished a lot.

A last-minute dip within 15 minutes of the cash session open touched the 2084.50 bias-up signal. Its reaction bounced to greet the open at fresh highs testing 2088.00. A consolidation was resolved by extending up to 2093.50.

The post-open consolidation contained a higher high and higher low to form trending. The opening 15 minutes trended up. Forming this setup on expiration is often predictive of the entire session. The 2092.00 bias-up target was exceeded (barely, in a reaction down from 2094.50) through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And more than just probing Wednesday night’s 2089.25, it is being recovered through relevant timing windows.

The burden of proof is definitely on sellers.

Contradicting that is the bearish WedEX. It’s passive, triggered late, and only by default. So, its contradiction isn’t overwhelming. And RSIs that were overbought initially are now diverging negatively.

Back under 2091.00 would start to signal at least backing-and-filling, which could test yesterday’s “lower prior highs” around 2083.00 or lower. Otherwise, extending higher today remains possible.