Post-open Review

Hovering in positive territory isn’t necessarily strength.

The pre-open slide from 2089.25 probed negative territory after the open. But only slightly, and only briefly, basically testing 2077.50 support. Its reaction up tested the 2082.75 bias-up signal, probing it by 1 point. Twice.

But the hesitant selling and the repeated bouncing matter less than price action at a relevant timing window.

At 10:15 the bias-up signal had held its test. This is a no-bias environment. And since a fresh low printed after 10:15, invalidating the no-bias signal requires exiting the bias environment above the pre-10:15 2083.75 high. Meanwhile, an offsetting test of the 2072.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Although not required, I would expect that to visit 2068.00, too.

Pre-open rally is extending.

There wasn’t much reaction down from 2056.75, where yesterday’s terrorist threat was announced. Dipping at the open to 2053.00 was recovered quickly to a fresh high at 2058.25. That was extended up to 2060.50.

The 2055.00 bias-up signal triggered. The grace period was avoided narrowly when a dip attacked 2055.00. That was in reaction to another terrorist threat headline. It is now recovering to 2059.50.

So, the 2061.50 bias-up target is in-play. Potentially, that will lead to testing 2068.00, too. If so, then timing will be interesting since a Fed speaker at noon and FOMC Minutes at 2:00 are still scheduled.

LATE NOTE: Despite exceeding the last buy signal at 2058.75 higher than its first 3 minutes, a spike down probed under 2058.75 by deeper than 6 ticks. This is a mechanical sell signal, suggesting that the selling pressure is overwhelming. I noticed a headline on one channel not (yet) repeated elsewhere which might be the dip’s catalyst. This is still a bias-up environment, but knee-jerk reactions can’t be prevented.

Actually, nothing can prevent a knee-jerk reaction to headlines, or a complete reversal triggered by another attack. Be sure to have a stop working always.

Pre-open Fibonaccis pick a winner, so the loser can win, too.

The pre-open retracement of 61.8% back to the 2059.25 high held as resistance. Its reaction down to 2045.50 filled the gap back to yesterday’s close. But it didn’t gain traction.

Ranging around the 2050.00 bias-up signal was overlapping at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 10:30 triggered late bias-up.

The 2055.75 bias-up target was fulfilled almost immediately. It wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but that didn’t change whether this is a bias-up environment. It is.

And, renewed bias or not, the next higher objective is 2068.00. Already, fresh highs have touched 2060.50. Traction gained by yesterday’s rally suggests the trending will persist for another 20-30 minutes — making pullback limit tests likely to hold.

Regardless, exiting the bias environment back under its 2055.75 bias-up target would make higher highs unlikely before another corrective dip.

Pre-open dip finds more buyers, and another peak.

The overnight recovery had attacked 2026.00. Structurally, it had tested the “higher prior lows” of Friday morning’s consolidation. That’s resistance, and it pushed back.

The pre-open reaction down came within 1 point of the 2012.00 bias-down target. The 2017.00 bias-down signal was recovered into and out of the open, and not by a little. The overnight high was probed up to 2030.00.

But the 2029.00 preliminary indication held its test through 10:15. This made the 2027.00 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger. And it did not trigger. But momentum hasn’t so much reversed down, as it has given way to choppy ranging centered around 2027.00.

The bias environment will be within view of lapsing in a half-hour. Meanwhile there is room for noise back down to the 2017.00 bias-down signal.

A fresh low must still break under 2012.00 to suggest a retest of the overnight lows. But greeting the bias environment lapsing by just ranging around 2027.00 would be vulnerable to resuming the rally well into the afternoon.

Race for the exit drives price sharply lower.

Not opening positive had already avoided one bullish setup. Opening within the 2034.50-2039.75 range still could have recovered the 2039.75 bias-down signal to avoid triggering. But remaining within the range made a probe under overnight lows likely.

Probing overnight lows still could have recovered both 2034.50-2039.75 bias parameters. But it had become a little late for that, and the bottom dropped out.

Dropping all the way through 10:15 fulfilled every bit of potential to the 2025.00 area, including the room for noise under it to 2023.25. The weekend’s impending illiquidity can accelerate afternoon intentions to fuel morning trends.

Oversold RSIs at the low doom any bounce to failure until the low’s retest. Not holding the low’s retest would next target 2012.00. If a bounce does form, it would benefit from future selling pressure having been accelerated into the morning.