Post-open Review

Post-open rally neutralizes higher resistance.

The overnight rally to 2692.25 was retraced ultimately to 2673.00. It’s pre-open bounce greeted the open at this morning’s 2679.25 bias-up target, and then dipped again to 2667.75.

And the low was in.

Just having absorbed the pre-open dip had suggested already the overnight high would be probed up to 2695.00-2697.00. Their test reacted down to 2683.00, and is bouncing again. Just exceeding the 2695.00-2697.00 target suggests the next higher objective is 2715.50. Price is now trying to saw its way through to 2700.00.

Or, else, the high is in.

RSIs are diverging negatively. The sawing is still overlapping 2695.00-2697.00, and not yet trending above it. Back under 2688.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The 2679.25 and 2671.00 bias-up parameters would be likely objectives until the bias environment begins lapsing to allow even lower.

Overnight recovery extends, corrects again.

Having tested 2721.00-2723.25 overnight, recovering 2735.50 through the open would suggest the pullback was complete. And perhaps it is.

The overnight recovery actually extended up to 2746.25. An opening dip from there was likely, but also likely to recover from as low as 2733.00. Attacking it to within 2 ticks snapped back up 10 points to 2743.50.

That recovery didn’t hold, but 2735.50‘s recovery was maintained through the open. So, position of strength.

A position of strength is about context, and doesn’t dictate immediate direction. It certainly didn’t prevent triggering late bias-down under 2734.75. Or already fulfilling its 2727.25 bias-down target. The position of strength’s context should dictate that the test is absorbed and reversed back rally mode.

Not yet recovering keeps alive potential for retesting 2721.00, too. But back above 2736.50 would signal the post-open pullback AND overnight pullback were done, and that momentum is reversing up.

Probing under critical support.

The pre-open test of 2709.00 by 3 ticks didn’t qualify as a pre-open test, so it couldn’t be absorbed to form a durable bottom. And by printing fresh lows under the earlier 2714.00 low, an opening bounce  was likely to peak at 2721.00-2723.25.

The bounce limit was thoroughly tested before finally reversing down. The recent Ascending Triangle’s oversold RSIs at 2712.25 had been neutralized already pre-open, and presented little friction to slow a collapse to 2692.25.

A bounce limit was soon violated, and a buy signal eventually triggered (after a failed test). Its minimum bounce target in the 2711.00 area is being tested now. There’s potential for extending to 2715.25, but no requirement.

Back under 2702.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the bounce had ended, whether only to retest the low down to 2690.00 or to extend the downleg. Nothing prevents extending the decline much deeper. The next major objective below is 2670.00, unless today’s close recovers the morning’s highs. Extending the decline also has no pace and no slope too fast or too deep at this stage.

Isolation rejected, WedEX reaffirmed.

Probing 7 points under Friday’s 2756.50 low was recovered to open at this morning’s 2777.00 bias-up signal. Maintaining its recovery would isolate the probe under Friday’s low to the overnight. That would be bullish. Or, would have been bullish.

The recovery was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, but not by a complex probe minutes later. Not maintaining the recovery is almost as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. The drop extended down to 2751.00.

That was almost 30 points under the open’s 2780.50 high. That’s the bearish WedEX’s aggressive influence. That bearish influence should persist through the bias environment, but now a bounce is back well above the 2764.25 bias-down signal up to 2775.00. So, the question is whether the bearish influence will resume.

The trend isn’t required to extend, although that’s increasingly likely — even after the bearish WedEX lapses — if this morning’s dip isn’t recovered and reversed. But the 2758.75 bias-down target is already met. At least the 2764.25 bias-down signal should be retested as support, regardless of its resolution.

Post-open rally backs away from the ledge.

The pre-open recovery up to 2786.50 was retraced 8 points to greet the open at 2778.25.  Half of the opening 15 minutes of volatility elapsed without probing any lower. Perhaps that was just the confidence booster needed to reinvigorate the overnight gains, but more aggressively. Surging through the first half-hour extended up to 2800.50 before a reaction down that actually threatened to reverse.

And that delayed reaction down did extend to 2788.50. Which might yet break lower — its reaction bounced 9 points, but only temporarily as most has been retraced back down to 2791.50.

Any lower would start to signal momentum reversing down. Remember that exiting the morning bias environment (or entering the noon hour) back under a relevant level like yesterday’s 2786.50 noon hour high would be bearish. Otherwise, an afternoon decline become more difficult, and the door would remain open to a short-squeeze.