Post-open Review

After avoiding it all night, support breaks through the open.

Overnight lows repeatedly stopped short of touching or breaking under yesterday afternoon’s 2799.50 bias environment low. Probing under it post-open wasn’t required. But probing under it post-open could form a session-long decline, since Wednesday’s close had trended up.

More so, a bearish WedEX could form by proxy, since yesterday was essentially an Inside Day.

The open did slide back under yesterday afternoon’s low, and not by a little, down to 2792.00. Its reaction attacked 2802.00, which is also resistance at this morning’s 2801.50 bias-down target. The bounce failed, and fresh lows have attacked 2791.00.

So, this is a session-long decline, with each timing window but one likely to probe its prior timing window’s low. WedEX has triggered bearish by proxy. And it’s a renewed bias-down environment.

Back above 2800.75 could extend into a corrective bounce up to 2806.00. It’s being probed now. Bounces are otherwise likely to fail, inflection points are likely to react down, and support tests are likely to fail. Back under 2798.00 would signal the decline had resumed.

Opening setup plays out quickly.

Probing the prior session’s high overnight, but exiting the open under the earlier Globex low, forms a Globex-flip setup. This morning’s open was greeted by a bounce from 2804.00 attacking the 2813.25 earlier Globex low to within 1 tick. Trending down 19 points since then has tested 2792.50.

Along the way, the 2803.00 bias-down signal triggered cleanly. Its 2795.00 bias-down target was being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal, but this is still a bias-down environment.

The Globex-flip’s influence should last through the morning. Otherwise, its influence should last through tomorrow morning. So, trending down this morning without recovering this afternoon would very likely trend down tomorrow morning, too.

Absorbing and reversing the bearish influence is possible whenever it has developed so quickly. Back above 2800.75 would target a corrective bounce up to 2807.00. Exiting the bias environment much higher could resume the bounce for its 2838.00 potential.

REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS UNTIL NOON.

Yesterday afternoon’s late slide was triggered by the Saudi Arabia story’s headlines. Despite dropping to 2745.00, the slide’s 2779.00 origin was still likely to be retested. At least, so long as relevant supports held, and preferably so long as the bias-up signal was renewed.

Rallying overnight into a range around 2758.50 broke higher at an accelerated pace to greet the open up to 2775.00. Fresh highs at 2776.50 and then 2783.25 easily renewed the 2764.75 bias-up target. Doubly renewed, actually, which isn’t very relevant anymore.

Meanwhile, trending higher relentlessly overnight often either finds post-open reinforcements or else counter-trend sponsorship. This morning found reinforcements. That doesn’t require extending higher relentlessly intraday, but it does create a position of strength likely to absorb a corrective dip. And without yet probing above the pre-10:15 high, a corrective dip would be triggered back under 2775.00 with potential to 2762.00-2765.00.

With or without a pullback, the Ascending Triangle pattern appears to be back on-track for producing an even higher corrective bounce. With too deep of a pullback, a retest of Thursday’s lows could be underway.

Overnight drop largely retraced, then not.

Sunday night’s drop to 2745.25 was greatly retraced to attack 2769.00 before the open. The open, itself, was greeted at the 2762.75 bias-down signal. Blipping-up 7 points to 2769.75 was reversed just as quickly, but then choppily, more than 18 points down to 2751.25.

That’s essentially the 2751.75 bias-down target. The 2762.75 bias-down signal had triggered cleanly along the way, so its minimum requirement is met.

Reacting up sharply to 2765.00 retested the 2762.75 bias-down signal as resistance. Which it still is, regardless of whether its target has been met. Which it was. Recovering the bias-down signal by 10:30 could have invalidated the bias-down signal. Which it wasn’t.

Resistance at the 2762.75 bias-down signal is so far holding. Recovering it at the bias environment’s exit would be bullish, at least for probing Friday’s highs above 2780.00. Otherwise, the decline is free to resume. And exiting the bias environment back at its lows could resume the decline in a very big way.

Session-long rally setup fails to fully form.

Rallying overnight to 2785.00 was optimism. But it would be ineffectual if not exploited post-open. Gapping up to and/or through yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias environment high still needed to extend higher. It didn’t.

2777.00 is actually the resistance that yesterday’s bias environment high was testing. The open tested the actual 2778.50 high by 3 ticks. And then it collapsed. A dip to 2766.00 was recovered to 2778.00, but that has also collapsed to attack 2759.00.

Failing to complete the session-long rally setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish. The earliest confirmation is to probe under the pre-9:45 open’s low after 10:15. That’s done. Like the session-long rally setup would have done, all but one timing window today should probe its prior timing window’s low.

None of which precludes sizeable intraday bounces. Even fresh highs can maintain the setup’s integrity, if rejected back under prior highs before that timing window lapses. Current example: A bounce from 2759.00 is retesting this morning’s 2773.00 bias-up target. Big bounce, which should hold this resistance because its test held already through 10:15.

A momentary probe of fresh session highs is still possible, but back under 2767.75 would start to signal the reaction down has resumed. Remember, the bigger picture’s goal is to close back under 2749.00, preferably under yesterday’s 2745.50 and 2732.00 closes, if not also under yesterday’s 2712.25 low. None of which is likely if probing a fresh high without rejecting it.